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Morning Brew September 23 2024
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Heading towards Q4 at key levels
Good morning.
We are heading into the end of the 3rd quarter with a busy week that will likely see the highlight on Friday in the US Inflation data. Until then, we expect key global data and Fed speakers (see below) as many assets are trading at key levels.
10 Year Yields remain at 3.72. the USD Index 100.77, EURUSD 1.1163, GBPUSD 1.3310 and USDJPY 144.27.
Gold and Silver are 2627 and 31.06, Bitcoin is nearly at 64k after Blackrock issued a rather strong recommendation, the cryptocurrency was a good diversification to protect against certain risks such as debt, banking crises and geopolitical woes – the fact that Blackrock sees these risks are worth protecting against, might be the key message here.
Fed Governor Waller acknowledged that core inflation is running beneath the Fed's target, and added that the August inflation numbers suggest core PCE rose 0.14%, and if you annualize the last four months, that leaves inflation running at less than 1.8% - beneath the Fed's 2% target. This is what prompted him to vote for a 50bps rate cut last week acc to our Asian team.
There was little move in US Indexes on Friday, in Germany the Dax Index fell after hitting new all time highs on the Profit warning of Mercedes, the Index fell 1.5% . The Summit on the German Auto Industry will take place today and German politics worth watching after he state election in Brandenburg.
Last week, the S&P 500 gained 1.4%, the Nasdaq rose 1.5%, and the Dow climbed 1.6%. So far we are positive in September with the S&P up 0.8% against the usual weak September. There are 6 more trading days to go.
FedEx fell 15% on a bleak outlook, while Nike jumped 6.8% on the announcement Elliot Hill would become CEO, Intel gained on news that Qualcomm was considering a takeover of the company. There are also reports that Apollo Is also looking to invest up to 5 billion onto Intel, that will be an interesting stock today.
Constellation Energy and Microsoft have agreed to restart Three Mile Island nuclear plant in Pennsylvania.
The U.S. Commerce Department will likely seek to ban Chinese software and hardware in connected and autonomous vehicles
Trade safely!
Monday
- Data International PMI
- speakers: Bostic, Goolsbee, Kashkari,
Tuesday
- Data Australia Rate decision DE IFO Index
Wednesday
- Data Japan PPI, New Home Sales
Thursday
- Data SNB , US Initial Jobless Claims, GDP & Durable Goods orders,
- speakers: Collins, Williams, Kashkari, Zelensky visits the US
Friday
- Data EU Consumer confidence, US PCE, Canada GDP
Physically Settled Futures
PLV4 will expire on 23/Sep 1500 hrs
CLV4 will expire on 20/Sep 1500 hrs
CTV4 will expire on 24/Sep 1500 hrs
NGV4 will expire on 26/Sep 1930 hrs
TTFMV4 will expire on 27/Sep 0900 hrs