Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: What the Fed
Good Morning
Jackson Hole is over and Powell remained dovish as anticipated. The curious occurrence was that just before the beginning of Powell’s speech, Mester and Kaplan came on the wires with rather hawkish tones stating the time for tapering was now and that the bond purchases should be reduced to zero in eight months. This spooked traders somewhat, but markets recovered once Powell confirmed his dovish tones basically stating the economy was on track and that the start of tapering could turn out to be appropriate this year still. The comments just before Powell hint at dissonance within the FED.
The S&P 500 reached new records and closed up 0.88% and 1.23%, the Dow gained 0.69%.
Stocks to watch were workday and Nvidia gaining 9 and 2.6% respectively. Workday had good results and Nvidia is seeking EU approval to take over ARM.
Curious was news on the IPO plan for Rivian Automotive which is seeking USD 80 bio in valuation which caused Elon Musk to comment on the outlandish expectation, he suggested he company should sell at least one car for every billion in valuation sought.
In FX the USD strengthened on Friday after the comments by Bullard and Mester, then fell against most currencies. The USD Index rose to 93.18 before dropping to 92.60, now 92.62. the 50d moving average is current support at 92.55. EURUSD fell to 1.1733 before rising to above 1.18, currently 1.1800. Gold and Silver broke initial resistance at 1810 and 24. It will be intersting if we take the next levels as well. EURUSD : 1.1810 then 1.1845 Gold : 1835 and Silver 24,00 then 24.50. US 10 Year Yields fell to near 1.3%.
Today is a UK Holiday, key events this week will be German and EU inflation, international PMI data and most important the US Nonfarm Payroll on Friday. A higher than feared German and European inflation will increase Pressure from the Bundesbank on the ECB to act as inflation fears are extremely high in Germany and the current only mandate of the ECB is price stability, the ECB cannot justify the job market as second metrics like the fed can.
Trade safely.
Local Start Date | Local Time | Country/Region | Indicator Name | Period | Reuters Poll |
30 Aug 2021 | 09:00 | Switzerland | KOF Indicator | Aug | 125.0 |
30 Aug 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | Consumer Confid. Final | Aug | -5.3 |
30 Aug 2021 | 13:00 | Brazil | IGP-M Inflation Index | Aug | 0.91% |
30 Aug 2021 | 14:00 | Germany | CPI Prelim YY | Aug | 3.9% |
30 Aug 2021 | 14:00 | Germany | HICP Prelim YY | Aug | 3.4% |
31 Aug 2021 | 01:30 | Japan | Jobs/Applicants Ratio | Jul | 1.12 |
31 Aug 2021 | 01:30 | Japan | Unemployment Rate | Jul | 2.9% |
31 Aug 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | Industrial O/P Prelim MM SA | Jul | -2.5% |
31 Aug 2021 | 03:00 | China (Mainland) | NBS Manufacturing PMI | Aug | 50.2 |
31 Aug 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Building Approvals | Jul | -5.0% |
31 Aug 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Current Account Balance SA | Q2 | 21.0B |
31 Aug 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Net Exports Contribution | Q2 | -1.0% |
31 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | Denmark | GDP QQ Prelim | Q2 | |
31 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | Denmark | GDP YY Prelim | Q2 | |
31 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | Denmark | Unemployment Rate | Jul | |
31 Aug 2021 | 08:45 | France | GDP QQ Final | Q2 | 0.9% |
31 Aug 2021 | 08:45 | France | CPI (EU Norm) Prelim YY | Aug | 2.1% |
31 Aug 2021 | 09:00 | Switzerland | Official Reserves Assets CHF | Jul | |
31 Aug 2021 | 09:55 | Germany | Unemployment Chg SA | Aug | -34k |
31 Aug 2021 | 09:55 | Germany | Unemployment Rate SA | Aug | 5.6% |
31 Aug 2021 | 10:00 | Italy | GDP Final QQ | Q2 | 2.7% |
31 Aug 2021 | 10:00 | Italy | GDP Final YY | Q2 | 17.3% |
31 Aug 2021 | 11:00 | Italy | CPI (EU Norm) Prelim MM | Aug | -0.2% |
31 Aug 2021 | 11:00 | Italy | CPI (EU Norm) Prelim YY | Aug | 2.0% |
31 Aug 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | HICP Flash YY | Aug | 2.8% |
31 Aug 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | HICP-X F&E Flash YY | Aug | 1.4% |
31 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | GDP QQ Annualized | Q2 | 2.5% |
31 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | GDP MM | Jun | 0.7% |
31 Aug 2021 | 16:00 | United States | Consumer Confidence | Aug | 124.0 |
1 Sep 2021 | 02:30 | Japan | Jibun Bank Mfg PMI | Aug | |
1 Sep 2021 | 02:30 | South Korea | IHS Markit Mfg PMI | Aug | |
1 Sep 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Real GDP QQ SA | Q2 | 0.5% |
1 Sep 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Real GDP YY SA | Q2 | 9.2% |
1 Sep 2021 | 03:45 | China (Mainland) | Caixin Mfg PMI Final | Aug | 50.2 |
1 Sep 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Nationwide house price mm | Aug | 0.1% |
1 Sep 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Nationwide house price yy | Aug | 8.6% |
1 Sep 2021 | 09:00 | Turkey | GDP Quarterly YY | Q2 | 21.7% |
1 Sep 2021 | 09:00 | Turkey | Manufacturing PMI | Aug | |
1 Sep 2021 | 09:45 | Italy | Markit/IHS Mfg PMI | Aug | 60.0 |
1 Sep 2021 | 09:50 | France | Markit Mfg PMI | Aug | 57.3 |
1 Sep 2021 | 09:55 | Germany | Markit/BME Mfg PMI | Aug | 62.7 |
1 Sep 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | Markit Mfg Final PMI | Aug | 61.5 |
1 Sep 2021 | 10:30 | United Kingdom | Markit/CIPS Mfg PMI Final | Aug | 60.1 |
1 Sep 2021 | 11:00 | Turkey | ITO Istanbul Retail Prices | Aug | |
1 Sep 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | Unemployment Rate | Jul | 7.6% |
1 Sep 2021 | 14:00 | Brazil | GDP QQ | Q2 | 0.2% |
1 Sep 2021 | 14:00 | Brazil | GDP YY | Q2 | 12.8% |
1 Sep 2021 | 15:00 | Brazil | Markit Mfg PMI | Aug | |
1 Sep 2021 | 15:30 | Canada | Markit Mfg PMI SA | Aug | |
1 Sep 2021 | 15:45 | United States | Markit Mfg PMI Final | Aug | |
1 Sep 2021 | 16:00 | United States | ISM Manufacturing PMI | Aug | 58.5 |
2 Sep 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Trade Balance G&S (A$) | Jul | 10,200M |
2 Sep 2021 | 09:00 | Austria | GDP Growth QQ Final | Q2 | |
2 Sep 2021 | 14:00 | Brazil | Industrial Output MM | Jul | -0.7% |
2 Sep 2021 | 14:00 | Brazil | Industrial Output YY | Jul | 1.8% |
2 Sep 2021 | 14:30 | United States | International Trade $ | Jul | -70.9B |
2 Sep 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Initial Jobless Clm | 28 Aug, w/e | 345k |
2 Sep 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | Trade Balance C$ | Jul | 1.70B |
2 Sep 2021 | 16:00 | United States | Factory Orders MM | Jul | 0.3% |
3 Sep 2021 | 02:30 | Japan | Services PMI | Aug | |
3 Sep 2021 | 03:45 | China (Mainland) | Caixin Services PMI | Aug | |
3 Sep 2021 | 09:00 | Turkey | CPI MM | Aug | 0.60% |
3 Sep 2021 | 09:50 | France | Markit Serv PMI | Aug | 56.4 |
3 Sep 2021 | 09:50 | France | Markit Comp PMI | Aug | 55.9 |
3 Sep 2021 | 09:55 | Germany | Markit Services PMI | Aug | 61.5 |
3 Sep 2021 | 09:55 | Germany | Markit Comp Final PMI | Aug | 60.6 |
3 Sep 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | Markit Serv Final PMI | Aug | 59.7 |
3 Sep 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | Markit Comp Final PMI | Aug | 59.5 |
3 Sep 2021 | 10:30 | United Kingdom | Reserve Assets Total | Aug | |
3 Sep 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Non-Farm Payrolls | Aug | 728k |
3 Sep 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Unemployment Rate | Aug | 5.2% |
3 Sep 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Average Earnings YY | Aug | 4.0% |
3 Sep 2021 | 15:00 | Brazil | Markit Services PMI | Aug | |
3 Sep 2021 | 15:00 | Brazil | Markit Composite PMI | Aug | |
3 Sep 2021 | 15:45 | United States | Markit Comp Final PMI | Aug | |
3 Sep 2021 | 15:45 | United States | Markit Svcs PMI Final | Aug | |
3 Sep 2021 | 16:00 | United States | ISM N-Mfg PMI | Aug | 61.8 |
6 Sep 2021 | 08:00 | Germany | Industrial Orders MM | Jul |
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
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Chief Investment Strategist
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Chief Investment Strategist
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Head of Commodity Strategy
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Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Quarterly Outlook
Head of Commodity Strategy