Macro: Sandcastle economics
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Morning Brew June 7 2023
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Slow Trading on lack of clues
Good Morning,
The Market seems relatively free of inspiration at the moment. There is little in terms of fundamental data and few earnings this week, next will be a different story with the US CPI, the FOMC, as well as the ECB rate decision.
Key Indexes moved little yesterday, the most noteworthy moves were the Russel 2000 which added 2.7%, the Regional Bank Index gained more than 5% while Coinbase lost more than 12% on the lawsuit by the SEC. AMD added 5%.
In FX, the USD Index hovers around the 104.10 with EURUSD at 1.0685, GBPUSD is 1.2420 and USDJPY 139.20. Gold and Silver are at the same level as yesterday at 1962 and 23.54.
Outlier in FX is the Turkish Lira which is looking like in parabolic decline at now almost 23 Lira per USD:
The question here is what to do…
- wait for next week for fairly certain volatility
- go long volatility and bet on a coming move. With the VIX Future at 15.5 and 1 month ATM EUR vol at 6.5% this looks attractive
- employ yield enhancing strategies such as covered calls and sold puts to generate additional income
- generate passive income with account interest – it may be worth optimizing your currency balances at USD pays up to 4.25% without holding periods or limits.
Chinese data was mixed overnight, exports disappointed severely at -7.5% against an expected drop of 0.4% while imports only declined 4.5% vs an expected drop of 8%.
The rest of the day, the Swiss FX reserves will be of interest, as well as the Baank of Canada Rate decision at 9:00 and 16:00 respectively.
Wednesday 7 June
DE Industrial Output
UK House Price Index
CH FX reserves
CA Rate decision
Thursday 8 June
AT CPI
US Jobs Data
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Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3
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