Macro: Sandcastle economics
Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Brent Oil rebounded off of rising trend line, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and the strong support (decided by where there break out occurred prior to the price went almost vertical) at around $96.75
It now seems to be rejected at the 0.618 retracement of the sell-off following the blow out peak. We are likely to see a few days with minor set-back before a likely move higher. A break above $123.73 will most likely lead to a test of the 7th March peak at $139.13. No divergence on RSI indicates new highs possibly testing all-time highs at $147.50 - see Monthly chart. But an extension of the uptrend to 1.382 projection of this month's correction at $155.25
This bullish scenario will be demolished if Brent Oil drops below the strong support line at around $96.75.
After the “Boom and Bust” scenario unfolding earlier this month Dutch TTF Gas is being rejected at the 21 Daily SMA. For further upside a break above €132.75 is needed. Below €94.82 prices around 65 is not unlikely. Spring has arrived in Europe?
Contrary to Dutch Gas the US gas prices are on the rise. Henry Hub Gas has broken longer term falling trend line closing in on the strong resistance at around $5.52
Uranium is in an uptrend initiated after bullish break out earlier this month. Currently the Uranium ETF URA:arcx is trading around the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at around 26.68. There is minor RSI divergence however, so a correction down to around 25 is not unlikely.
However, as long as URA stays above 22.50 uptrend is intact.
Carbon Emission seems to have been rejected at around the 0.618 retracement . A Bear Engulfing candle Wednesday signals a top and reversal. RSI not being able to break above 60 threshold indicates bear trend is likely to resume. A break below €75 is likely to fuel a sell-off down to around 68.
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)