Macro: Sandcastle economics
Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Intel – det større billede og historiske niveauer
Engang var Intel den halvlederproducent (chips), som hele markedet holdt øje med. Det var tilbage i .com-æraen og før Nvidia begyndte at dominere. Nu er Intel i problemer. Aktiekursen har tabt mere end 60% siden begyndelsen af dette år og er tilbage på 2012-niveau – se månedsgrafen
På kort sigt
Efter det seneste udsalg i Intel den 2. august har aktien handlet i et snævert interval mellem 22,00 og 18,90 og skal bryde ud for retning på kort sigt.
En daglig lukkekurs over 22,00 kan føre til et kort rally, hvor Intel vil forsøge at lukke hullet (GAP'et på daglig graf) op til kurs 29,05.
Hvorvidt det vil lykkes at lukke hullet, vil afhænge af styrkeindikatoren RSI; en RSI-luk over 60 vil understøtte en positiv bevægelse mod den øvre grænse af det hul, der blev skabt 2. august som er 29,05.
Men under det seneste udsalg og nye lavpunkt, og efterfølgende sidelæns handel, indikerede RSI ikke divergens, dvs. har ikke indikeret, at den nedadgående trend i aktiekursen er ovre. Lavere kursniveauer kan forekomme
Hvis Intel bryder under 18,90, vil det lave kursniveau fra august 2010 omkring 17,67 sandsynligvis blive testet. En daglig lukkekurs under 17,67 kan yderligere anspore et udsalg, og 2009-lavet omkring 12,07 kan blive inden for rækkevidde.
Den første indikation af, at det fortsatte negative scenario udspiller sig, vil være, hvis RSI lukker under sin stigende (blå) trendlinje.
Det vil dog ikke garantere, at Intel falder helt ned til 2009-lavet omkring 12,07. Købere/bundfiskere kunne prøve at løfte aktiekursen før den rammer 12 USD. Hold øje med bund- og vendingsmønstre, der kan udvikle sig
Hvis RSI ikke falder til nyt lavt niveau vil det være en indikation på at den negative trend er ved at være ovre.
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