Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - US 10-year Treasury yields and Future. EuroBund future
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
3.50% is key level for US 10-year Treasury Yields. 114 /32 is the key level for the future.
EuroBund rejected at key resistance and could resume downtrend
US 10-years Treasury Yields are short-term in a downtrend having reached 0.382 retracement of the July to October uptrend and the 1.764 projection target of the last upwards move in what looks like double top pattern. RSI below 40 supporting this bearish picture.
3.50% is key support! However, US 10-year yields could test and bounce from 3.56 which is the low from October correction and 2.00 Projection target of the Double top like pattern.
Measured from the height of the double top pattern the yields have reached 1.618 projection at 3.63%.
If yields start to pick up and closes back above 4% the uptrend is likely to resume and previous highs are likely to be targeted.
Below the US 10-year Treasury Note future. 114 8/32 is key. A close above is likely to support further buying towards 117. Trend is currently up supported by RSI and could continue to test strong resistance at around 113 30/-114 7/32.
If the future slides back and closes below 11 27/32 it is back in bear mode.
If the future slides back and closes below 11 27/32 it is back in bear mode.
EuroBund future has followed the pattern outlined in previous Technical Update (the corrective arrows) but has been rejected at 142.62 resistance at first attempt. Whether it will have another go remains to be seen. If Bund future is breaking and closing above 142.62 a move to around 147.50 is in the cards.
If the future slides back below the neckline the Inverted (complex) Shoulder-Head-Shoulder like pattern is likely to be busted. That scenario will be confirmed if the future closes below 138.26, – that could lead to a test of October lows .
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