Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
COT: Gold speculators turn bullish ahead of FOMC; Oil long drops further
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Summary: Hedge funds increased bullish commodity bets for a second week with precious metals and grains being the main contributors while crude oil and industrial metals were sold.
Saxo Bank publishes two weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial.
To download your copy of the Commitment of Traders: Commodities report for the week ending December 11, click here.
In crude oil, the relentless selling extending into an 11th week, albeit at a reduced pace. The combined net-long in Brent (+3.1k lots) and WTI (-8.6k lots) dropped to 256k lots, a three-year low. This occurred despite the Opec+ agreement to cut production over the coming months by 1.2 million barrels/day. The combined net-long – as per the chart below – is now more than 20% below the previous two lows in August 2016 and June 2017 from where crude oil rallied strongly on both occasions.
The gold position flipped to a net-long for the first time in five months. This came after funds cut longs by 8k lots and short positions by 20k lots. In the two weeks to November 11 funds bought 62k lots, mostly above $1,230/oz. While funds have moved towards a more bullish stance ahead of 2019 any additional dollar related weakness as seen on Friday could pose a short-term challenge.
Silver, meanwhile, had its net-short reduced to just 9k lots, as speculators turned the least bearish since July.
Silver, meanwhile, had its net-short reduced to just 9k lots, as speculators turned the least bearish since July.
Funds turned net-long in the grains sector after buying 71k lots, with the change being led by soybean oil (+13k) and corn (+45k). Speculators have not been net-long these three major crops in December since 2014. The cut-off time for this report occurred the day before soybeans temporarily spiked on news that China had resumed the purchase of US cargoes.
In soft commodities funds added fresh Arabica coffee shorts as the bean suffered a sixth straight weekly decline, its longest losing streak since July. Signs of ample supply from Brazil and a weaker BRL supporting an elevated contango, which short-sellers attempts to benefit from.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro: Sandcastle economics
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p... -
Quarterly Outlook
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...
Disclaimer