Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - Brent Oil, Natural Gas, Carbon and Coal
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
With the Brent Crude oil future testing the October 2021 peak at USD86.70/brl a strong bullish move could have come to a temporary halt.
A likely rejection could reverse the mood and initiate a 38.2 correction down to around USD80
However, regardless of a such a possible correction the medium term trend would still be up. There is no divergence on RSI indicating we could see Brent moving higher after a likely correction.
After the implosion of the Natural Gas bubble, Gas has seen strong resistance in bouncing back above the d USD 100/MWh mark. Last week there wasn’t even strength to get through the 55 SMA. It seems like we should expect Dutch Gas to be range bound between USD 65 and 100 for some time.
Carbon could be in the process of forming a corrective symmetrical triangle. Look out for break out of the likely patterns two trend lines. However, the most important level to look out for is the strong support at around EUR74. A break below could lead to a collapse in prices down to around EUR65-60.
If this is indeed a corrective triangle a bullish break out should be expected and new highs are in the cards.
For more than a year Rotterdam Coal has seen a steady decline. But that decline could be about to come to an end, at least short term. There is massive divergence over the past couple of months indicating Coal could be in an exhaustive bearish move and a rebound to EUR 60-65 could be imminent. No bottom and reversal pattern is drawn however, but the down trend is weakening
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