Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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COT: Energy leads broad-based buying
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Summary: The latest COT report for the week ending September 25 reveals a strong uptick in bullish sentiment on the part of leveraged funds. Demand was focussed on energy but buying was noted across most sectors.
Saxo Bank publishes two weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial.
To download your copy of the Commitment of Traders: Commodities report for the week ending September 18, click here.
Leveraged funds increased bullish commodity bets for the first time in seven weeks in the week to September 25. The buying was broad-based with 18 out of the 26 commodities in this update being bought. The net-long rose by 150,146 lots with all sectors apart from softs being net-bought. The energy sector continues to see most of the demand with US sanctions against Iran and a recovery in natural gas being the focus.
To download your copy of the Commitment of Traders: Commodities report for the week ending September 18, click here.
Leveraged funds increased bullish commodity bets for the first time in seven weeks in the week to September 25. The buying was broad-based with 18 out of the 26 commodities in this update being bought. The net-long rose by 150,146 lots with all sectors apart from softs being net-bought. The energy sector continues to see most of the demand with US sanctions against Iran and a recovery in natural gas being the focus.
The Brent crude oil rally to a new four-year high above $80.50/b attracted continued buying with the net-long rising 28,465 lots to 496,343 lots, an 18-week high but still well below the April record at 632,000 lots. The long-short ratio, meanwhile, jumped to a stretched 19.3 (longs per one short) on a combination of longs being added and the gross-short falling to a seven-year low. WTI, meanwhile, was sold for a third consecutive week.
Gold’s range bound behaviour around $1,200/oz attracted limited interest while silver shorts were covered as it began recovering from a multi-year low against gold. Platinum and copper both saw strong buying as industrial metals found a bid after China announced tax cuts and increased (infrastructure) spending.
Grains were bought on speculation that a worst case scenario may have been priced in by now. On Friday, however, the release of quarterly US stocks confirmed a continued challenging environment with soybeans and corn stocks both being higher than expected.
The sugar net-short jumped 62% after the early September recovery was completely reversed on bearish supply news out of India. Arabica coffee’s record short was cut by 3% in response to a recovering Brazilian real. On Friday the December contract closed at $1.0245/lb and above its 20-day moving average for the first time in more than three months.
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