Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
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Technical Update - Copper tanking looking at 372. Supports in Gold & Silver still holding on but probably not for long
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Copper have turned bearish and could drop to strong support at 372.
A correction in Gold and Silver has been looming for a couple weeks by now, but Buyers have been too strong to give in lifting the precious metals to close above key supports. But this week might be the time when Sellers will take control.
Key support in Gold 1,981 and Silver 24,64
Copper has been hit by heavy selling after being rejected at the resistance at around 416. Broken below short-term rising trendline and fast approaching minor support at around 382.
RSI is below 40 threshold and if closing below sentiment is negative. Copper could drop to key strong support 372 .
For Copper to demolish this bearish picture a close above the rising trend line and above 55 Moving Average is needed.
Gold. A correction has been looming in Gold for quite some time as indicated by both the Bearish Engulfing top and reversal pattern and the RSI divergence but the sell-off/correction has not yet materialised.
The precious metal has dipped below the support at around 1,981 three times the past week only to close back above. Sellers will quite possibly have another go next couple of days.
If Gold closes below 1,981 it could fuel a sell-off down to the 0.618 retracement at around 1,897. Strong support at around 1,949. Keep an eye on that level as it could prove too strong to break.
55 daily Moving Average is rising indicating underlying bullish sentiment.
For Gold to resume and extend uptrend a close above 2,050 is needed.
Silver is still holding on above support at around 24.64. A close below will unfold the reversal the Bearish Engulfing pattern is suggesting should hit Silver.
A close below 24.64 is likely to lead to a sell-off down to the 0.382 retracement and support at 23,70.
If Sellers really take control to close the precious metal below 23,69 Silver could drop as low as to the 0.618 retracement at 22,26.
For Silver to resume uptrend a move to cancel the Bearish Engulfing candle is needed i.e., a close above 26,10. No divergence on the RSI suggests this is not a scenario that should be ruled out.
A close below 24.64 is likely to lead to a sell-off down to the 0.382 retracement and support at 23,70.
If Sellers really take control to close the precious metal below 23,69 Silver could drop as low as to the 0.618 retracement at 22,26.
For Silver to resume uptrend a move to cancel the Bearish Engulfing candle is needed i.e., a close above 26,10. No divergence on the RSI suggests this is not a scenario that should be ruled out.
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