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Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - Gold bottom and reversal pattern. Silver building uptrend. Copper range bound
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Gold formed bottom and reversal pattern after bouncing from 1,900. Eyeing 2K but will not be without a struggle.
Silver finding support just above 22.00 and seems to be building uptrend
Copper could be range bound for a while. 382 could be the Bull/Bear Pivot
Gold formed last week on both the Spot price XAUUSD and the Future a Doji Morning like candlestick pattern (circled), which is an indication of a bottom and reversal.
Trend is still down however, and RSI showing negative divergence but if Gold can close above 100 daily Moving Average an uptrend is likely to be build.
On the weekly chart Gold seems to be bouncing from the 0.382 retracement at around 1,900 (XAUUSD dipped just below 1,900 whereas the future has stayed above).
However, for Gold to get back to test the 2K could be a bit of a struggle with the daily 55 Moving Average declining providing some resistance.
A short-term move to the 0.382 retracement at 1,963 just below the Cloud seems like a likely scenario.
If daily RSI can close above 60 threshold Gold will be back in positive sentiment with a likely move to the 0.618 retracement at 2,007 on the XAUUSD to follow.
If Gold closes below last weeks low it is likely to extend downtrend to around 1,870.
Gold future continuous
Gold weekly
Silver seems to have found support around the support area 22.60-22.15. Divergence on RSI indicates the selling pressure is weakening and Silver could rebound strongly off supports.
A rebound that short-term could take Silver to around 24.00where the 55 daily Moving Average will provide some resistance.
A close above 24.50 will confirm uptrend on both daily and weekly time period.
Copper has bounced from around the 0.618 retracement. Currently rejected at the 55 daily Moving Average Copper could be range bound for the next few days maybe weeks. 382.20 could be the Bull/Bear Pivot.
If closing above uptrend is likely to be built with short-term potential to 400 but likely higher towards 415-425.
A break below 368.30 the selling pressure is will resume likely pushing Copper to test key support around 356.
If closing above uptrend is likely to be built with short-term potential to 400 but likely higher towards 415-425.
A break below 368.30 the selling pressure is will resume likely pushing Copper to test key support around 356.
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