Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Gold bouncing from 0.382 retracement resuming uptrend. Likely to move back above 2K
Silver and Copper still range bound and could be stuck for weeks
Platinum and Palladium collapse nearing exhaustion
Gold XAUUSD correction down to the 0.382 retracement and the 200 DMA
RSI still showing positive sentiment and divergence indicating Gold is likely to bounce back and move higher above October peak at around 2,010. Expect resistance at around the 0.618 retracement at 1,980 where a minor setback could be seen.
A break below 1,930 is likely to lead to a sell-off down to test the falling trendline possibly dipping down to test 1,900
Silver XAGUSD dipped down to the 0.618 retracement at 21.84 but managed to close back above support at around 22.15.
RSI is still showing positive sentiment but expect Silver to be range bound 22-23.50 for the foreseeable future. A close above 23.78 is needed for uptrend confirmation.
A close below 22.15 for down trend confirmation Platinum XPTUSD has been in a decline the entire 2023 getting close to support around 830-820. A bounce could be seen from here.
Short-term a bounce 890-900 could be seen but for Platinum to confirm an uptrend a close above 945 is needed Palladium collapse could be getting close to an end. The rare metal has been in decline for the better part of tow years and is close to the lows back in 2018 prior to the massive 2019-2021 bull market around 850-815.
Weekly RSI is at its lowest level since 2015 (blue horizontal line) suggesting the Palladium bear trend could be close to be exhausting
However, no bottom and reversal pattern and indication formed just yet Copper: Key strong support at around 354.50. Weekly chart is illustrating why this level is so important, a close below could lead to a sell-off down to around 325.
But despite several attempts sellers have not managed to close Copper below the support.
Copper could still be range bound 354.50 to 375 for quite some time. Copper needs to close above 382 to establish and confirm and uptrend
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.