Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - Metals finding support and rebounding: Gold, Silver, Platinum and Copper
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
- Metals have been hit with a swift bearish correction but have not found some support
- Silver is once again leading the direction with a rebound and Platinum is following
- Gold and Copper with fairly muted response but could just be a question of time
- Keep an eye on support levels for continued correction
- Europe and US metals and mining ETFs listed in the article
Gold (XAUUSD) seems to be bouncing from the cloud (shaded area—the Ichimoku Cloud) between the 0.618 and the 0.786 retracement, and the minor support at around 2,326. A dip down to the 0.786 retracement at 2,314 could still occur before rebounding.
If breaking above 2,385, the uptrend is likely to resume with a push towards previous peak levels and possibly to 2,500. The 55-day moving average will add to the bullish support.
A close below 2,277 confirms a downtrend.
The strength indicator RSI is showing divergence, indicating the uptrend is in exhaustion mode. However, a close back above the 60 threshold and above the upper falling trendline would be a strong indication of another bullish push in gold
Silver (XAGUSD) is bouncing from the 0.382 retracement at USD 30 and is likely to resume its uptrend. Daily RSI is still showing positive sentiment with no divergence, indicating silver could push to levels above 32.52. If it takes out 32.52, there is no strong resistance until around 34.40–35.40 (see weekly chart).
A break below 30 could continue the correction down to the 0.618 retracement at 28.50
Platinum (XPTUSD) correction has bounced from the upper support area 1,015–1,007 and seems to be resuming its uptrend. The uptrend has no resistance until around 1,130 (see weekly chart), which is close to the 1.382 projection of the correction from last week at 1,128.50.
The 2.00 projection is at 1,179, within a few cents of the 2022 peak at 1,182, which is not unlikely to be reached.
If platinum drops below 1,015, it is likely to be hit by another sell-off down to the 0.618 retracement at 974.50.
Positive RSI sentiment with no divergence supports the bullish scenario of a move to 1,130
Copper has found support at the 0.618 retracement of the early May bullish move at 474.50. A bounce could be seen. However, if it breaks below 474, the correction is likely to continue to the 0.786 retracement at 462.25 or to the 0.382 retracement of the entire uptrend since February at 460.
There is minor divergence on the RSI, but if RSI closes back above the 60 threshold, copper is likely to rebound further. A copper close above 492 is likely to confirm a strong rebound that could take the metal to 510.
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