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Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - Gold correction to 2,134, Silver to 23.75 before resuming uptrend? Copper breaking 400, eyeing 420. Palladium and Platinum building uptrends
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Gold formed top and reversal pattern indicating a correction. but how deep before uptrend likely resuming?
Silver rejected at resistance, could be sent back down below 24 but uptrend likely resuming
Copper breaking important 400 level. Eyeing 420-430
Platinum building uptrend but it is fragile. Back to 1,000?
Palladium bottom and reversal pattern pointing to 1,1650, possibly +1,200
Gold (XAUUSD) hit the 1.382 projection at USD 2,195, forming a Doji Evening top and reversal pattern. A correction is unfolding, possibly taking gold down to support at USD 2,134 but could quite likely dip down to the 0.382 retracement at USD 2,114.
A larger correction down to the 0.618 retracement at USD 2,065 should not be ruled out.
A daily close below USD 2,114 could be the first indication of that scenario playing out. However, the RSI indicator is showing positive sentiment with no divergence, strongly indicating gold is likely to move higher after a correction.
If Gold is breaking above last weeks peak at 2,195.25 a bullish move to the 1.618 projection at 2,233 is in the cards
To totally negate the bullish picture, a daily close below USD 2,016 is necessary. However, a close below USD 2,064 could be the first indication of that scenario playing out
Silver (XAGUSD) has been rejected at minor resistance at around USD 24.60. A setback to the 0.382 retracement at USD 23.76 seems likely.
However, a larger correction down to the 0.618 retracement at USD 13.20 should not be ruled out. The 21, 100, and 200-day moving averages are all rising, showing an underlying bullish trend in the short and medium term.
The RSI is indicating positive sentiment, suggesting that the current uptrend in silver is likely to resume with short-term potential to around USD 26
However, a larger correction down to the 0.618 retracement at USD 13.20 should not be ruled out. The 21, 100, and 200-day moving averages are all rising, showing an underlying bullish trend in the short and medium term.
The RSI is indicating positive sentiment, suggesting that the current uptrend in silver is likely to resume with short-term potential to around USD 26
Copper has broken higher, establishing an uptrend on the daily chart. The RSI back above the 60 threshold confirms this picture. At the time of writing, copper has broken above the importatn USD 400 level and a daily clsoe above could be the catalyst foir furhter upside to higher levels
On the weekly chart, if copper closes above USD 697.40 and the RSI closes the week above 60, the bullish picture is solidified. Copper would then be set for higher levels with the first target and resistance at around USD 419.55.
However, in the medium term, there could be potential up to around USD 450, with resistance at around USD 429.45.
A close back below USD 381 will negate this bullish scenario
Platinum (XPTUSD) has established an uptrend by performing a higher close above USD 967, confirmed by the RSI closing above the 60 threshold.
The declining 55 and 200-day moving averages are weighing on the short-term upside potential.
However, if platinum can close above the cloud (shaded area), it could signal energy for higher levels with no strong resistance until around USD 1,000 i.e., December 2023 peak
If platinum slides back, closing below USD 909, the bullish picture is demolished, and we are back in wait-and-see mode
Palladium yesterday tested the neckline in its confirmed inverted Shoulder-Head-Shoulder pattern. Bouncing off from it, it has now resumed its uptrend with upside potential to USD 1,160, as indicated by the vertical arrows.
As a rule of thumb, the target price can be calculated by taking the distance from the neckline to the head and adding that distance to the breakout price from the neckline, giving us USD 1,160.
However, often the price only travels a projection of 0.618 to 0.786 of the distance, i.e., to USD 1,102-1,128.
The declining 200-day moving average will add some resistance to the uptrend.
However, there is no strong resistance until around the December peak at around USD 1,238-1,257.
A daily close below the neckline, i.e., below USD 1,012, will negate this picture
Short description of how to understand and read the Technical Indicators used in Technical Analysis
Technical analysis studies and indicators
Technical analysis studies and indicators
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