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Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
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Technical Update - WTI broken bullish. Brent Struggling. Natural Gas bounce still has legs to go but for how long?
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: WTI Crude oil broken above key resistance but Brent oil is struggling. Natural Gas bounce continuing. How high can it go?
WTI Crude oil closed Friday above key strong resistance at around 79.77. RSI closed back above 60 threshold supporting a bullish trend.
WTI is above the slightly rising 200 Daily Moving Average and with the 55 DMA rising steep below the underlying sentiment is bullish. Should be noted however, that the 100 DAM is declining adding to a bit mixed picture i.e., a bullish move is likely to be struggling for momentum
However, there is now upside potential to the 1.382 projection at 84.14 close to the 0.618 retracement at 84.59. Strong resistance at around 82.56, however, could cut the bullish move short.
A close below 75.50 will demolish the bullish scenario Brent Crude oil on the other hand has not broken its key resistance at around 84.75.
A close above is needed for a confirmation of a bullish scenario, supported by an RSI close above 60. RSI is showing positive sentiment already but needs to close back above 60 for continued confirmation.
A close above 84.75 could push Brent to resistance at around 87.35 but there could be potential to 89.50-90.50
The Daily Moving Averages are acting like the Moving Averages for WTI.
Dutch TTF Gas has bounced off support at around 22.85. The Gas contract could bounce to the 0.618 retracement at around 27.82 if it can overcome resistance at around 26.50.
A push to the 0.786 retracement at 29.31 should not be ruled out. Strong resistance at around 31 Henry Hub Natural Gas is closing in on the USD2 levels that was mentioned in the latest Technical Update as a likely price target. A move to the 0.786 retracement at 2.03 seems quite likely.
If breaking above that level (2.03) the strong resistance at around 2.17 could be tested.
If Nat Gas is losing upside momentum and closing back below 1.80 previous trough at around 1.52 is likely to be tested Latest Market Insights
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