Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Crypto Weekly: Anxiously awaiting 141,000 Bitcoins
Mads Eberhardt
Cryptocurrency Analyst
Summary: Since the largest Bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox was hacked in 2014, the trustee has managed to recover around 141,000 out of 850,000 Bitcoins. The recovered Bitcoins were rumored to be paid back to creditors this August. Yet, it seems that it will not occur in the next months, making the market wait in fear of potential imminent selling pressure.
The market anxiously awaits 141,000 Bitcoins from Mt. Gox
In 2014, the largest Bitcoin exchange at the time called Mt. Gox leaked a total of 850,000 Bitcoins through a hack. Out of a maximum supply of 21mn Bitcoins, the hack is the most consequential in the history of crypto, although there have been many other hacks. Though, the trustee managed to recover around 141,000 Bitcoins, which have to date not been paid out to creditors; that is clients with Bitcoins deposited to Mt. Gox back in the days. With a recovery plan approved by creditors last year, the payout is undoubtedly coming closer. It was rumored in July to take place this August. However, it now seems that it is still months away, as the repayment system is not yet live.
Although the Bitcoins are likely not to be repaid in the coming months, it is expected to take place at some point. The market has been severely anxious with respect to the 141,000 Bitcoins potentially flooding the market immediately following the payout, since creditors may see it as a race in liquidating the Bitcoins before everyone else. Since Mt. Gox was hacked, the value of the Bitcoins has increased by a factor of 35, so the creditors might want to secure some profit. What speaks against this race to liquidate the Bitcoins is that the trustee is likely to repay the Bitcoins in installments one at a time. Likewise, these creditors are mainly strong Bitcoin advocates soon having been around for a decade. A substantial portion of them have already made life-changing money, so they are less prone to sell the Bitcoins.
As the past has often proved, the anticipation of imminent heavy selling pressure is often more powerful for a potential downward trajectory than the selling pressure itself. Strictly speaking, we do not expect the repayment to pose heavy selling pressure, particularly if it occurs in relatively minor installments at a time. Yet, we have our eyes on the market’s anticipation of the repayment, because it might spread fear across the market since it is predominantly dominated by retail more inclined to fear.
See you on the other side, dear NFT hype
The crypto trend of 2021 was arguably non-fungible tokens (NFTs). The biggest winner of this trend was the largest NFT marketplace OpenSea, facilitating a volume worth $14bn in 2021. While OpenSea started the year nicely with an all-time high monthly volume of over $5bn in January, it has since seen its volume decline massively. OpenSea has recorded a volume worth $480mn in August so far, in which its volume barely exceeds $10mn some days. The declining volume is mainly a result of a less speculative market combined with diminished prices denominated in Ether and even more in dollar terms.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro: Sandcastle economics
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p... -
Quarterly Outlook
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...
Disclaimer