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Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Technical Update - Crypto bubble imploding. Long way to solid ground
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
The Crypto currency bubble is collapsing. Bitcoin leads the way lower and has a long way to find solid ground. Ethereum outperforming Bitcoin but looks heavy too.
BTCUSD could drop below 10K and ETHUSD is looking at 500.
BTCUSD is in a confirmed down after breaking below 17,567 and seems to be set for a test of strong support at around 12,320 close to the 1.618 projection level at 12,841 of the July-August correction – blue set of Fibonacci’s.
However. BTCUSD could drop further to the low back in August 2020 prior to BTCUSD almost went vertical at around 9,813. That level is close to the 200% or 2.00 projection of the 2022 July-August correction at 9,920.
RSI has broken its rising trendline strongly indicating lower levels for bitcoin.
BTCUSD needs to close above 25,215 to demolish this bearish picture.
ETHUSD has formed a Shoulder-Head-Shoulder like formation, not the most textbook perfect one but an S-H-S pattern nevertheless.
If ETHUSD is to travel the same distance after Neckline break out as from the Head peak to the Neckline it will go into negative.
But with this more irregular Shoulder-Head-Shoulder pattern the potential target is likely to be more modest.
A more plausible downwards target would be that ETH it travels 61.8% of the Head peak to the Neckline distance i.e., to around 615 as illustrated by the two vertical orange arrows.
ETHUSD almost reached that level during the April to June sell-off before a correction set in.
However, it could still reach that 615 - and quite possibly lower.
ETHUSD is in a confirmed down trend on daily and weekly chart bouncing from the 0.786 retracement of the July-August correction. Support at 879.80 and if that level is taken out there is no support until the upper level of the consolidation area from 2020 between 489 and 290.
489 is also close to the 1.382 projection of the exhaustive peak in November 2021 – blue set of Fibonacci – and the 1.382 projection of the July-August correction – green set of Fibonacci’s.
However, ETHUSD could collapse to the lower level of the consolidation area around 290 possibly overshooting to 1.618 projection of the July-August correction at 167.90.
For ETHUSD to reverse this picture scenario a close above 2032 is needed.
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