Macro: Sandcastle economics
Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.
You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
China/Hong Kong Market Pulse: EU Targets Chinese BEVs with New Tariffs
Redmond Wong
Chief China Strategist
Key Points:
- EU imposes significant tariffs on Chinese BEVs to protect local industries
- Tariffs incentive Chinese BEV makers and their supply-chain to relocate production to the EU
- While Chinese FDI to Europe falls to multiyear lows, China's EV-related investments in Europe surge
- BYD and Geely are leading in building capacities in Europe
Introduction
As discussed in our article last month, the European Union (EU) is set to introduce substantial tariffs on Chinese battery electric vehicles (BEVs) to shield its domestic auto industry from rising competition. This action follows an investigation by the European Commission (EC), which concluded that Chinese automakers benefit significantly from government subsidies, posing a threat to European companies. These new tariffs aim to slow the growth of Chinese EV imports into the EU. For the time being, it maintains a welcoming stance towards Chinese manufacturers relocating their production to Europe.
EU's Additional Tariffs on Chinese BEVs
On June 12, the European Commission pre-disclosed its intention to impose additional tariffs on BEVs manufactured in China, effective from July 4, unless an agreement is reached with Chinese authorities to resolve the alleged unfair competitiveness of Chinese BEV makers due to government subsidies. The definitive measures of the implementation of the tariff will be finalized within four months from July 4, with the possibility of retroactive collection starting from April 5.
The EC's investigation into the Chinese BEV value chain focused on government subsidies and selected three major Chinese automakers—SAIC, Geely, and BYD—as sample companies in the investigation. Based on the findings, provisional tariff rates were set: SAIC at 38.1%, Geely at 20.0%, and BYD at 17.4%. Unlike the US tariffs on Chinese EVs, the EU's tariffs will vary by company.
The investigation revealed that SAIC, a state-owned enterprise, faces the highest tariff rate, while private companies Geely and BYD have lower rates. The higher tariff on SAIC suggests that its status as a state-owned entity and without any production capacity in Europe may have contributed to the elevated tariff rate. In the first four months of 2024, SAIC, Geely, and BYD sold 20,283, 6,804, and 7,555 units of BEVs, respectively, to the European Union.
Other BEV manufacturers that cooperated with the EC, such as NIO and XPENG, face a 21% tariff. Tesla China, being a US company operating in China, might receive an individually calculated duty rate, expected to be lower than those imposed on Chinese BEV makers. Currently, the EU imposes a 10% tariff on BEV imports from China. With the additional tariffs, the total rates will reach 48.1% for SAIC, 30% for Geely, and 27.4% for BYD. Most other manufacturers, except Tesla China, will face at least a 31% tariff.
Incentivizing Local Production and Supply Chain Relocation to the EU
In addition to slow import growth, the EU's move is seen as an incentive for Chinese BEV makers to relocate their production and supply chains to Europe. BYD and Geely have received more favorable tariff rates partly due to their existing or planned assembly plants in Hungary, Sweden, Belgium, the UK, and Slovakia. BYD has an assembly plant in Hungary and plans to open another one, while Geely, directly or through its subsidiaries, has production plants in Sweden, Belgium, and the UK, with plans to set up plants in Slovakia by 2026. These strategic investments in European production facilities likely contributed to the lower tariff rates imposed on these companies.
Over the past two years, Chinese EV manufacturers, battery makers, and other EV supply-chain companies have been building production capacities in Europe in anticipation of rising trade barriers. This move is strategic in positioning for a fast-growing European EV market, given the EU's requirement for all new cars sold to be zero-emission vehicles starting in 2035. By 2030, the number of EVs in Europe is expected to rise sharply to 40 million from around 8 million currently.
This strategic positioning serves multiple purposes. It allows Chinese automakers to circumvent impending tariffs, maintain competitiveness in the European market, and better understand and cater to local preferences and regulatory requirements. Additionally, creating local employment helps gain political support and reduces the pressure of trade restrictions against vehicles manufactured by Chinese EV makers.
Strategic Investments by Chinese EV and Battery Makers
While the overall level of Chinese Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Europe fell to EUR 6.8 billion in 2023—the lowest level since 2010—China's EV-related investments in Europe increased by 62% to EUR 4.7 billion in 2023, up from EUR 2.9 billion in 2022, according to data compiled in a report from Rhodium Group. This accounted for 69% of China's FDI into Europe during the year. Most of these investments were greenfield projects, involving the construction of production plants in EV assembly, EV batteries, or processing battery materials like cathodes and anodes.
Chinese automakers and battery makers have been actively setting up production plants across Europe. BYD is building an EV assembly plant in Hungary with an annual capacity of 150,000 vehicles, scheduled to be operational by 2026. Chery has production plants in Italy and Spain, with annual capacities of 60,000 and 115,000, respectively. Geely and its subsidiaries have production plants in Sweden, Belgium, and the UK, and are constructing an EV plant with an annual capacity of 250,000 in Slovakia, scheduled to be operational by 2026.
Moreover, battery makers such as CATL, Huayou Cobalt, and AESC (majority-owned by Envision) are building EV battery-related production plants in Hungary, France, and Germany. These investments are part of a broader strategy to establish a strong foothold in the European market and position for the anticipated growth in the European BEV market.
Investment Implications for Chinese EV Stocks
The imposition of additional tariffs on Chinese BEVs by the EU highlights the growing tension between major global economies over trade policies amidst geoeconomic fragmentation. The EU's new tariffs on the import of BEVs made in China have limited impacts on the current sales levels of Chinese EV companies but potentially significant implications for their future growth via exports.
Chinese automakers and battery manufacturers are strategically investing in Europe, building production plants, and creating jobs to maintain their competitiveness and market access in the European market. These investments not only help them circumvent the new tariffs but also position them to gain from the anticipated growth in the European EV market, in line with the EU's environmental goals of increasing the penetration of zero-emission vehicles on the roads.
Note: Geely Financials Denmark A/S, a subsidiary of Zhejiang Geely Holdings Co. Ltd., is a major shareholder of Saxo Bank A/S.
Selective recent articles from this author:
2024-06-12 China/Hong Kong Market Pulse: Reforms, Not Stimulus, Drive Growth
2024-06-03 China/Hong Kong Market Pulse: Symbolism at Play Approaching the Third Plenary Session
2024-05-29 Understanding the Surge in the Japanese Equity Market and Corporate Share Buybacks
2024-05-27 China/Hong Kong Market Pulse: Challenges and Opportunities in China’s Electric Vehicle Industry
2024-05-21 China/Hong Kong Market Pulse: New Approach to Housing Policy and Market Implications
2024-05-13 China/Hong Kong Market Pulse: Barbell Tactical Trades on High Dividend and Technology Names
2024-03-19 US Election: Shaking Up Chinese Equities and the Renminbi?
2024-03-04 China/Hong Kong Market Pulse: Decoding Expectations about the Two Sessions
2024-02-06 China/Hong Kong Market Pulse: The Stormy Waters of the Chinese Equity Market
2024-01-12 Taiwan's 2024 Elections: Balancing Geopolitical Realities and Economic Pragmatism
2024-01-09 Investing in China: Navigating Q1 amid economic challenges
2023-11-07 China/Hong Kong Market Pulse: Central Financial Work Conference Unveils Near-Term Bullish Signals
2023-10-12 China/Hong Kong Market Pulse: Central Huijin Increases Stakes in the Four Largest SOE Banks
2023-10-09 China/Hong Kong Market Pulse: Evaluating the Potential Rebirth of Pro-Market Reforms
2023-10-05 Understanding the Surge in Bond Yields: Term Premium, not “higher for longer”
2023-10-03 No one's indestructible
2023-09-27 China/Hong Kong Market Pulse: Property Debt Overhang, Recovery Signs, and Policy Outlook
2023-08-21 Macro Update: Ceasing Interest Payments on Reserve Balances in a Fiscal Dominance Regime
2023-08-08 China Update: Investing in China's High-Quality Development Initiatives
2023-07-25 China Updates: Politburo Focuses on Quality Growth and Industry Policies
2023-07-06 China faces challenges from generative AI amidst the fragmentation game
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3
Sandcastle economics
-
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.
-
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.
-
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.
-
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.
Disclaimer