Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Santa Claus rally to continue in the new year? US equities
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
S&P500 bounced off its short term rising trendline just before Christmas starting the Santa Claus rally lifting the Index to new All-Time highs. We could see a couple of days with minor correction possibly down to around 4.700. However, RSI in bullish sentiment without divergence support short term bullish outlook.
S&P 500 is still trading in its medium term steep rising channel as can be seen on the weekly chart. Lower rising trendline was tested mid-December until buyers came in lifting the market cancelling out the top and reversal pattern formed in November that could have signaled a larger downturn.
However, RSI divergence is still something to keep an eye on. The strength indicator is not supporting the new highs and the Santa rally took place under quite low volume. However, divergence i.e. an imbalance in the market can go on for quite some time. (see RSI Divergence explained at the end of the article)
Strong support at around 4.495.
Nasdaq 100 bounced off its support at around 15.638 (seems like 15.543 was the key level) but didn’t manage to perform a new All-Time high.
Despite RSI divergence it is not out the question we could see new highs. If RSI breaks above its falling trendline. However, with the low and falling volume during the Santa rally the bounce is not build on solid ground. We need to see volume coming in.
However, on the weekly chart the picture is almost similar to S&P 500. Index is still trading above its medium term rising trendline. However, there are some weaknesses. The Bearish Engulfing top and reversal candle is not cancelled out, divergence on RSI and MACD. Staying above 15.543 is crucial.
RSI Divergence explained: When an indicator such as RSI is displaying lower peaks while the underlying price is still making new highs. It is a sign of imbalance in the market, the strength of the trend is weakening. It could be an indicating of an ending of a trend. However, imbalances in financial markets can go on for quite some time. To cancel Divergence out RSI must either 1. Make a new high simultaneously with the price or 2. Close below 40 threshold.
Same can be observed in bear market just here market makes a new low but Indicator doesn’t.
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