Macro: Sandcastle economics
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Technical Update - DAX, AEX25, BEL20 and CAC40. Mind the gaps. Will they be closed and Indices resuming bear trend?
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
European equity markets gapped higher Tuesday last week jumping approx. 6-8%. Buyers couldn't keep upside momentum and equities have since been sliding back to the gap. If closing the gaps bear trend is to resume with likely lower lows
DAX opened the new week below 12,209 thereby closing the GAP from Tuesday. But buyers have lifted the Index trying to push it back above 12,359 which would be a strong signal for higher levels. It could become a tough task however, All Moving Averages are pointing lower, and RSI is showing negative sentiment supporting bearish picture.
If DAX drops back below 12,209, and especially closing below, selling pressure is likely to accelerate pushing DAX to new lows
On weekly chart DAX formed a Bullish Engulfing candle last week (Dax opened lower than closing of previous week and closed above the opening of previous week) An Indication of buyers taking control i.e., bottom and reversal. There is also divergence on RSI supporting a bottom and reversal scenario.
However, if DAX drops below last week’s low that scenario is cancelled and reversed. Strong support at around 11,580.
If DAX closes above 12,674 it could test the upper falling trendline.
AEX25 closed has closed its gap this morning. It needs to close below 645.80 however, for confirmation.
If AEX does close below 645.80 new lows are likely. Support at around 603 and 575. If AEX on the other hand closes above 653 a push higher should be expected.
BEL20 closed its gap Friday resuming bear trend. All indicators point to lower levels; SMA’s dropping and RSI below 40 without divergence supports the bearish outlook with support at around 3,235.
However, if BEL20 find buyers and closes above 3,418 and RSI closes above its upper falling trend line BEL20 could push to test resistance at 3,506 possible higher.
CAC40 jumped strongly last week to close above 6,300. But it could not keep momentum sliding back and if CAC40 closes below 5,794 it has closed the gap resuming bear trend with support at 5,392. To get upside traction CAC must close above 6,040. Resistance at around 6,234
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