Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - Maersk, Novo Nordisk, Vestas Wind and Demant
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
A.P. Møller Maersk share price is heavily linked to the price on containers. Medium-term Maersk got rejected at resistance around 16,000. Trend is down supported by RSI in a downtrend and showing negative sentiment.
Short-term Maersk is trading in a corrective rising channel. It looks like the upside is limited with RSI still showing negative sentiment being rejected at 60 threshold several times by now. If Maersk breaks bearish out of the channel and closes below DKK14,935 the share price is likely to test September lows around 13,185 possibly the strong support area around 12,720-11,885.
For Maersk to reverse the down trend a close above 16,200 is needed.
Vestas Wind is trading in a medium-term falling trend forming a Wedge like pattern on the weekly time period. If Vestas can break above the upper falling trendline there could be more upside to resistance around DKK200.
Short-term Vestas is at the time of writing accelerating the uptrend breaking out of the slightly rising channel it has been trading in past couple of weeks. A double bottom pattern was formed in early October and a potential target is around 171.60, illustrated by the two vertical arrows. However, the share price could spike up to around 184.
The 55, 100 and 200 SMA’s (Simple Moving Averages) will provide some resistance.
If Vestas closes today back below the upper trend line in the rising channel the uptrend could be in jeopardy.
For Vestas to reverse this uptrend a close below todays low at 171.75 is needed. For Vestas to resume down trend a close below 131.30. If that scenario plays out Vestas could see its share price back to 2020 lows below DKK100.
Demant A/S is trading significantly lower this morning breaking bearish out of its short-term rising channel. Demant seems to be resuming the down trend the share has been in the past year. Demant is likely to test the support at around DKK174.75 shortly – see weekly chart.
A close below, which is quite likely, could push Demant back to 2020 lows around 134-132. For Demant to reverse the down trend a close above 217 is needed. A close of today’s opening gap would be first indication of this scenario to play out. A quite unlikely scenario it should be noted.
All indicators point to lower share price on Demant. RSI below 40 and no divergence and MACD turning sharply bearish.
Novo Nordisk is in an uptrend on short-, medium- and long-term time horizon.
Opening today above resistance around DKK824 Novo seems set for at test of previous all-time high at 863.60. Daily RSI has bounced off lower rising trend line and is above 60 indicating higher price levels.
A break of 863.60 is in the cards. On Weekly chart Novo seems to be trading in a rising channel and if the upper trend line is to be reached Novo could trade above 900-950.
However, there is divergence on RSI going back to Q4 2021 indicating weakening of the trend, but if weekly RSI closes above the falling trendline and above 60 threshold Novo is set for new highs.
To reverse this medium and long-term uptrend Novo needs to close below 730.
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