Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - AEX25, BEL20 & CAC40 short- and medium-term outlook
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
AEX25 is testing the upper part of the Cloud (shaded area) after taking out resistnace at around 747,50. There is resistance at around 763 which is also the 0.786 retracement.
The short-term trend is up but also fairly fragile. RSI needs to close above 60 threshold to switch to positive sentiment.
If AEX25 slides back to close below 747 the down trend is likely to resume and will be confirmed if closing below 727.
However, if AEX closes above 763 February peak wis likely to be tested and taken out.
Medium term the 772-777 level is a strong resistance level. A close above 777 there is no strong resistance until all-time highs around 830, within a few points from the 1.764 projection of the February-March correction.
BEL20 is dancing around 0.618 retracement and the lower part of the Cloud just below strong resistance at around 3,820 and the 55 daily Moving Average. RSI still be low 60 threshold i.e., negative sentiment, sellers could take back control to push BEL20 down to support at around 3,690.
But if BEL20 can close inside the Cloud and above the 3,820 RSI is likely to shift to positive suggesting higher level for BEL20.
If that scenario plays out there is resistance at around 3,894.
Medium-term BEL is in downtrend bouncing from 0.618 retracement. Weekly RSI is positive but BEL20 is struggling for upside momentum. A close above 3,800 is needed.
To resume and extend downtrend if taking out 3,523
CAC40 is closing in on all-time highs. At the time of writing RSI is back above 60 and if closing above strong indication of CAC40 will break above all-time highs at 7,491. If that plays out there is potential up the 1.382 projection at around 7,632 but could extend to 1.618 projection at around 7,775.
However, a minor short-term correction down to test the cloud possibly testing the 55 daily Moving Average should not be ruled out.
But for CAC40 to reverse the short-term uptrend a close 6,953 is needed.
Medium-term CAC40 looks similar to DAX – see Technical update on DAX and EuroStoxx50. A larger correction . RSI testing falling trendline. A close above will support higher CAC40 levels.
To reverse the medium-term uptrend a close below 6,796 is needed.
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