Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - AEX25, BEL20, CAC40 and SMI20
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: AEX25/NETH25 cfd uptrend stretched but could be extended
BEL20/BELG20 cfd in falling channel behaviour
CAC40/FRA40 cfd taken out previous peak and set to move higher
SMI20/ SWISS20 possibly forming top and reversal pattern
AEX25/NETH25 cfd has reached the 1.764 projection of the December correction at 822 and RSI has reached almost same level as just prior to the December peak.
If RSI is not closing above the horizontal line there is Divergence which is a sign of imbalance and possible uptrend exhaustion.
If AEX is taking out the peak at 823.76 from yesterday the uptrend is likely to be extended to 830 possibly higher.
A close below 798 will put the bullish picture on possibly reversing it
If RSI is not closing above the horizontal line there is Divergence which is a sign of imbalance and possible uptrend exhaustion.
If AEX is taking out the peak at 823.76 from yesterday the uptrend is likely to be extended to 830 possibly higher.
A close below 798 will put the bullish picture on possibly reversing it
BEL20 is trading in a falling channel pattern. The falling trend is supported by the negative sentiment on RSI.
However, The BEL20 Index is till above the Cloud and above the rising 55 DMA plus above the 100 and 200 DMA’s suggesting the bearish trend is merely a correction. However, a close below 3,609 could fuel a sell-off down to test the lower Cloud area and possibly also the lower falling trendline in the channel. Support at around 3,550. An RSI close back below 40 will confirm bearish trend to continue
A close above the upper falling trendline could see BEL20 testing resistance at around 3,742. A close above 3,742 bullish move above 3,800 would be in the cards.
RSI indicator will also be key here, a close above 60 threshold will support BEL20 to establish bullish trend
However, The BEL20 Index is till above the Cloud and above the rising 55 DMA plus above the 100 and 200 DMA’s suggesting the bearish trend is merely a correction. However, a close below 3,609 could fuel a sell-off down to test the lower Cloud area and possibly also the lower falling trendline in the channel. Support at around 3,550. An RSI close back below 40 will confirm bearish trend to continue
A close above the upper falling trendline could see BEL20 testing resistance at around 3,742. A close above 3,742 bullish move above 3,800 would be in the cards.
RSI indicator will also be key here, a close above 60 threshold will support BEL20 to establish bullish trend
BELG20 cfd levels
CAC40/FRA40 cfd closed yesterday above December peak and is set to move higher. The index could reach the 1.382 projection at 7,796 but a minor correction could be seen before the likely continued bullish move.
RSI is showing positive sentiment with no divergence supporting the bullish picture.
An Index close below 7,553 could demolish the bullish scenario, however
SMI20/ SWISS20 if drawing a bearish candle today the SMI Index will have formed a top and reversal pattern.
RSI showing divergence indicating uptrend is exhausting.
However, if SMI is closing above 11,474 the top and reversal pattern is being demolished and the uptrend is being extended.
Strong support at around 11,057
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