Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Alphabet sellers took control yesterday pushing share price to close back below key resistance. Uptrend could be in jeopardy
Apple could be range bound. Needs to close gap area to resume uptrend
Amazon and Meta uptrends resumed
Microsoft at all-time highs but likely to move higher
Nvidia broken deadlock to new all-time highs. Eyeing USD600
Tesla in a bearish trend closing yesterday just above key support
Apple was yesterday rejected the key resistance at around 187.15. A close above is needed for Apple to have the potential to close the gap up to 192.53. A close of the gap is needed for Apple to reverse the bearish picture.
If Apple is failing in closing the gap share price is likely to slide lower to test support at around 180.
Daily RSI is showing negative sentiment indicating lower levels.
However, on the positive side Apple is still above the Cloud (shaded area). A close below will add to a bearish picture.
Medium-term: Is Apple developing a Double top pattern? Possibly but it needs to close below 165.67 to confirm it. If closing on a daily basis below 180 that scenario is likely to play out
Amazon Before even testing support at around 142.81 share price rebounded resuming uptrend.
RSI bounced off the 40 threshold now back above 60 indicating higher price levels. Next strong resistance at around 167.55 close to the 2.0 projection of the correction.
Microsoft broke bullish out of its triangle like pattern and above minor resistance at around 377.16.
RSI is back above 60 and despite showing divergence is indicating higher share price.
A bullish move to 397-405 is in the cards.
A close below 366.50 will demolish the bullish picture
Nvidia has been shooting higher after breaking all-time highs and resistance at around 502.66. The bullish break-out is giving potential to 600 level.
To demolish the bullish picture a close below 473.20Tesla yesterday tested the support at around 225.95. Share price is now below the Cloud, below all Moving Averages including the more important 200 DMA, and RSI closed below 40 threshold i.e., in a negative sentiment.
A close below 225.95 is paving the road lower for Tesla with no strong support until around 194-195.
Medium-term the picture is a bit more blurry or indecisive. Tesla failed to close above its upper falling trendline on the weekly chart but is still above the rising 55 and 200 Moving Averages, and RSI is still in positive sentiment.
However, with lower highs and lower lows on the weekly chart the trend is bearish . The 55 and 200 Moving Averages and the lower rising trendline will offer some support.
For Tesla to reverse the bearish picture a close above 265.15 is needed both short and medium-term