Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Technical Update - ASML top and reversal pattern, indicators suggesting larger correction
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: ASML is in the process of forming a top and reversal pattern. Indicators warning about trend exhaustion. A larger correction is looming. Key support at 760
ASML is forming a Doji Evening top and reversal like pattern - circled. Combined with the divergence on RSI (RSI value at the highest close price is lower than the value at the 25th January closing), and declining volume it is a warning of a uptrend exhaustion.
This scenario is forming after ASML has performed three typical gaps seen during an strong bullish move.; Break Away gap, Continuation and Exhaustion gap.
A correction is in the cards. A correction that could take ASML down to test the upper part of the gap (we look at body gaps – not including the shadows/wicks of the candles) at around 760.
Sellers might trying to close the gap down to 707.50 but that gap is quite large and is probably too strong to close. 760 is key!
If ASML is closing the above 882.20 i.e., above yesterday’s peak the top and reversal pattern is demolished and ASML will be set for higher levels.
Weekly chart is showing ASML is in overbought territory. However, market can be in a state of overbought for quite some time. What is key is where this week is closing i.e., the closing price Friday. If closing below the opening price of last week at 823.40 this week will have formed a Bearish Engulfing candle, a top and reversal indication.
RSI is still in positive sentiment with no divergence indicating ASML could see higher highs. But if RSI is closing below its lower rising trendline it could be a warning of a larger correction.
Bottom line, keep an eye on this week’s closing price for the medium-to longer term outlook.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro: Sandcastle economics
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p... -
Quarterly Outlook
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...
Disclaimer