Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - DAX, AEX25, BEL20 & CAC40
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: DAX/GER40 cfd finding support at 0.618 retracement.
AEX25/NETH25 cfd key support at 768/766
BEL20/BELG20 cfd in uptrend but larger correction could be seen
CAC40/FRA40 cfd key support at 7,251
DAX is finding support at the 0.618 retracement at 15,865. The rising 100 Moving Average is adding to the support. RSI is still showing positive sentiment and needs to close below 40 threshold to change that. If closing below there we could see DAX sell-off down to the strong support area at around 15,482.
For DAX to resume uptrend a close above 16K is minimum requirement. If DAX is closing the gap from 2nd August then uptrend will be confirmed with a likely higher high to follow GER40 cfd formed an Evening Doji top and reversal pattern and is currently trading below key support at 16,000.
Hovering around the 0.618 retracement at 15,863 and the 100 daily Moving Average, key question is whether RSI will close below 40 threshold or bounce off it. If closing below there is potential to lower levels on GER40. If RSI closes below 40 expect further selling to key support at around 15,500 and July lows.
IF GER40 can climb back above 16K the uptrend is likely to resume
AEX25 Key support at around 768 is holding on. The rising 55 daily Moving Average adds to the support at 768. RSI is still showing positive sentiment and needs to close below 40 threshold to change that.
If AEX can climb back to close above 780 the Index is likely to resume uptrend.
If Closing below 768 selling pressure could push AEX to key support at around 748. Some support at around 757.
NETH25 cfd levels: Support at 766. A close below could push NETH25 down to the 0.786 retracement at 757 possibly down to test strong support at around 748
If A close above 781 the uptrend in AEX will be considered resuming
BEL20 is hovering around the 200 Moving Average. Selling pressure down to support at around 3,676, maybe dipping down to 3,650 could be seen. However, RSI is still showing positive sentiment.
If closing below 3,676 the selling pressure could push BEL20 Index to the 0.618 retracement at 3,614.
If that plays out key question is whether RSI will close below 40 threshold or bounce off it. If RSI is closing below 40 threshold BEL20 could experience at sell off down to 3,550-3,500
A bounce to close the gap up to 3,761 is likely to resume the uptrend
BELG20 cfd levels:
CAC40 has sold off to touch the 0.618 retracement but has managed to close above key support at 7,251.
A close above 7,345 CAC40 will try to close the gap. A closing of the gap i.e., a close above 7,406 the uptrend is to resume.
If closing below 7,251 and below the Cloud (grey shaded area) uptrend has been demolished.
Similar to the other European Indices key question is whether RSI will close below 40 threshold or bounce off it?
A close below 7,251 CAC could experience a sell-off down to strong support at around 7,083
FRA40 cfd levels: Key support at 7,249. Close below support could push FRA40 lower towards 7,153-7,100.
A close above 7,346 the Index will try to close the gap i.e., close above 7,409. A close above 7,409 the uptrend has resumed with likely new highs to follow
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