Quarterly Outlook
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Novo Nordisk has been the talk of town after it reached a Market Cap of DKK 2 bln. (2 milliarder in Danish terms)
But the market cap can go higher. Technically Novo is in an uptrend on all time periods.
Short-term: Novo did a Body gap last week. This gap needs to be closed for short-term uptrend to be demolished i.e., a close below 858.40. RSI is showing positive sentiment and no divergence indicating higher levels.
Medium-term Novo seems to be trading in a rising channel. For the better part of a year volume has been slightly declining with traded volume during down weeks significantly higher up-weeks and RSI has been showing divergence indicating a weakening of the uptrend. However, Volume seems to be picking up, especially last week, and RSI has closed above its falling trend line indicating the uptrend in Novo could continue. And remember the trend is your friend and Novo has performed higher highs.
Almost identical picture on monthly; there has been declining volume and RSI with divergence. However, also here RSI is breaking its falling trend.
The medium- to longer-term uptrend remain intact as long as Novo does not close below 730.60. First indication of an end to the uptrend could if Novo breaks below its lower rising trendline.
RSI divergence explained: When the price of an instrument is making a new high/low but RSI values are not making new high/low at the same time. That is a sign of imbalance in the market and an weakening of the uptrend/downtrend. Divergence or imbalance in the market can go on for quite some time but not forever. It is an indication of an exhaustion of the trend
Author is holding a long position in this company