Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
NY Open: Dollar dines on Turkey
Michael O’Neill
FX Trader, Loonieviews.net
Turkey was on the FX menu at today's New York bell, and it isn’t even Thanksgiving. Chef Donald Trump and his aides have concocted a smorgasbord of tariffs, sanctions and threats of more sanctions, fueling a broad demand for US dollars.
The US president upped the ante this morning even as the TRY threw in its cards, tweeting: “I have just authorized a doubling of Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum with respect to Turkey as their currency, the Turkish Lira, slides rapidly downward against our very strong Dollar! Aluminum will now be 20% and Steel 50%. Our relations with Turkey are not good at this time!”
The greenback opened in New York with gains against the major G10 currencies except the Japanese yen after a lively, somewhat choppy overnight session. This morning's US July CPI data were uneventful, but that’s because Trump’s tweet got all the attention. The US dollar extended its overnight slide and made new lows for the day.
EURUSD continued to be hammered. The fresh Turkey sanctions triggered another bout of Turkish lira selling. USDTRY spiked to 6.9260 from 5.9100 at the New York open. If European Union officials were worried about major EU banks’ exposure to Turkey at USDTRY 5.92, they would be terrified at USDTRY 6.9260.
The Canadian dollar employment report looked good but was rather ugly. Canada added 54,000 jobs, handily beating the 17,000 forecast while the unemployment rate fell to 5.8% (forecast 5.9%). Unfortunately, all the gains were part-time jobs. Canada lost 28,00 full-time workers. USDCAD reversed its initial drop and returned to its opening level.
Turkey took a bite of Wall Street. The major indices opened in negative territory led by a 0.66% drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. WTI oil prices climbed from $66.79/barrel at the open to $67.58/b. Prices were underpinned by a bullish report from the International Energy Administration warning of price disruptions if US oil sanctions on Iran are implemented.
EURUSD technicals are bearish after breaking major support in the 1.1500-05 area overnight and 1.1440 this morning, clearing the road for a drop to 1.1310.
Chart: EURUSD (daily)
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro: Sandcastle economics
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p... -
Quarterly Outlook
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...
Disclaimer