Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Technical Update - EURUSD taking out key resistance looking at 1.11 and higher. Dollar Index could drop below 100
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: EURUSD has taken out key resistance and is set for 1.1170. Medium-term EURUSD could move above 1.14
Dollar Index close to test key support at 101.30. If broken a sell-off down to around 98 is in the cards. Indicators support the bearish scenario
EURUSD closed last week above key resistance at 1.08 and is set for higher levels. RSI is still showing divergence but has broken above its falling trendline indicating it could trade out the divergence i.e., a new high on RSI is in the cards.
There is no strong resistance on EURUSD until around 1.1170. 100 and 200 weekly SMA’s are coming down providing some resistance around 1.11-1.12. If EURUSD reaches that area, which seems quite likely, a larger correction should be expected.
However, EURUSD could spike up to strong resistance at around 1.1482. That level is the peak just before the massive sell-off really hit EURUSD back in 2022.
Weekly RSI is above 60 i.e., showing positive sentiment an d no divergence supporting the bullish outlook.
For EURUSD to reverse the bullish picture a close below 1.0480 is needed.
The Dollar index took out support at around 103.20 and could be testing 101.30 shortly. There is divergence on RSI i.e., the downtrend is weakening. However, if RSI closes below the horizontal line the divergence has been traded out and new Dollar Index are likely.
If the Dollar Index closes below 101.30 a swift sell-off down to the 0.618 retracement of the entire uptrend at around 98.94 should be expected. 100 and 200 weekly SMA’s will provide some support but the Dollar Index could spike down to support at around 97.22 which is the upper level of the consolidation area in Q1 2022.
For the Dollar Index to reverse this bearish outlook a close above 104.85 is needed.
RSI divergence: When instrument price is making a new high/low but RSI values are not making new high/low at the same time. That is a sign of imbalance in the market and an weakening of the uptrend/downtrend. Divergence or imbalance in the market can go on for quite some time but not forever. It is an indication of an exhaustion of the trend
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro: Sandcastle economics
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p... -
Quarterly Outlook
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...
Disclaimer