Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - EURUSD and EURGBP taking out key levels, will they continue higher? GBPUSD holding above key support.
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
EURUSD rebound Friday from the 0.618 retracement at around 1.0775 and is now breaking above the resistance at around 1.0980. A daily close above is likely to push EURUSD higher to the 1.618 projection at 1.1054. However, there is no resistance until around 1.11-1.1140
RSI is showing positive sentiment with no divergence supporting the bullish outlook for EURUSD. To demolish this scenario a daily close below 1.0775 is required.
EURGBP has seen intensive buying since breaking above key resistance at 0.85. The resistance at around 0.8610 is now being tested. A spike up to the April peak around 0.8645 could be seen.
If closing below 0.86 EURGBP could slide back lower the next few days.
If EURGBP slides back below 0.8535 it could be range bound between 0.8635 and 0.8450 for quite some time and the bullish picture demolished.
RSI showing positive sentiment supporting higher EURGBP levels
GBPUSD has tested the 0.786 retracement and support at1.27. A break below is likely leading to a sell-off down to 1.2620, possibly down to 1.2560
If GBPUSD can stay above 1.27 there is rebound potential to the 0.618 retracement at 1.2915
RSI will be key for the direction. If closing below back 40 expect the bearish scenario to play out
If closing above 60 threshold the bullish scenario is likely to play out.
If the bullish scenario is playing out there could be further upside above 1.2915
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