Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - EURUSD downtrend potential to 1.0660, medium-term lower. Dollar Index eyeing 107
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
- EURUSD after being rejected at key resistance downtrend has resumed with downside potential to 1.0660 short-term. Medium-term potential to around 1.05
- The Dollar Index's recent close above 104.84, coupled with a supportive RSI, signals a continuing uptrend with potential to around 1.07
EURUSD experienced a rejection at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0883, which was followed by a massive sell-off triggered by the latest US CPI numbers.
The strength indicator RSI has been reflecting negative sentiment since mid-March, hinting that the recent bullish movement was likely a corrective phase rather than a trend reversal (as disccussed in previous Technical Updates)
Currently, EURUSD is testing the 2nd April lows at 1.0723. There might be a brief rebound, but the overall expectation is that selling pressure will resume. A break below 1.0720 could lead to a further sell-off towards the 1.382 Fibonacci projection and support at 1.0660. To counter this bearish outlook, a close above 1.0885 is required.
Medium-term Outlook:
Should EURUSD close this week at or below its current levels, it would confirm a bearish breakout from the triangle-like pattern observed on the weekly chart.
Applying Fibonacci projections from the October 2023 lows to the December 2023 highs, the 0.618 retracement at current levels is crucial. The next key level would be the 0.786 retracement at 1.0596, nearing the October 2023 low at 1.0448.
This level aligns closely with the 0.382 Fibonacci extension of the triangle's top to bottom at 1.0475 (red Fibonacci lines and the vertical arrows).
A break below the October 2023 lows at 1.0448 could precipitate a sell-off towards the 0.618 extension at 1.0280, marking a significant downward movement
The Dollar Index has exhibited bullish momentum, closing above 104.84 and reinforcing an uptrend that commenced around a week ago.
The RSI's movement above the 60 threshold confirms this bullish trend, suggesting strength in the upward movement.
Short-term, the Dollar Index is anticipated to progress towards the 1.764 Fibonacci projection and resistance around 105.75. A trend reversal would necessitate a close below 103.65.
Medium-term Outlook:
Looking ahead, the Dollar Index has the potential to reach the October 2023 highs at around 107.05. This bullish scenario hinges on the weekly RSI closing above the 60 threshold, which would indicate positive sentiment.
Resistance is expected near the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level at 105.61.
Conversely, a weekly close below 102.30 would invalidate the medium-term bullish trend, signaling a reversal with downside potential to 100.32
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