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Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - USDCHF, EURCHF & GBPCHF
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: CHF is being strengthened against most other currencies. Now with correct text for GBPCHF
Today's Market Quick Take from the Saxo Strategy Team
USDCHF has broken bearish out of its very short-term rising channel like pattern it was trading in since mid-January and the pair is closing on the lows from February. If USDCHF closes below 0.9050 the pair is likely to test the support at around 0.8930 which is close to the 1.382 projection of the rising channel correction. However, if USDCHF drop to around 0.89 there is downside potential to around 0.8750.
To reverse this bearish outlook a close above 0.9440 is needed. 200 weekly MA is providing resistance around that level.
EURCHF is in a down trend both short- and medium-term. Short-term EURCHF has broken below minor support at around 0.9810 and is within few cents of the key support at around 0.9708.
EURCHF is below all Moving Averages and RSI is below 40 i.e., in negative sentiment.
To reverse the down trend a close above 1.0042 is needed.
Medium-term EURCHF has resumed its downtrend. Weekly RSI have not managed to close above 60 threshold despite a strong rebound and uptrend in EURCHF since September.
55 weekly Moving Average and the 0.382 retracement at 1.0074 were too strong to close above and with last weeks sell-off EURCHF is back in bearish trend.
Strong support at around 0.97.
GBPCHF is testing key support at around 1.1045 in what seems to be a descending triangle like pattern. 0.382 retracement of the September 2022 trough to October rebound peak is at 1.1024.
There is minor support at around 1.0930 but GBPCHF is in a downtrend as indicated with the daily RSI below 40 threshold i.e., negative sentiment. GBPCHF is also below all moving averages further adding to the negative sentiment picture
Weekly chart shows more clearly the descending like triangle and key support at around 1.1045 and the 0.382 retracement. Weekly RSI has been showing negative sentiment for more than a year and the bounce in September 2022 did not revers that. If GBPCHF closes below 1.1048 and weekly RSI below 40 the it could fuel a sell-.off down to 0.618 retracement at at around 1.0711 but it would not be unlikely BGPCHF drops down to the 0.786 retracement at around 1.0473.
To reverse this bearish picture a close above 1.1375 is needed
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