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Technical Update - Heavy selling in USDJPY, EURJPY, AUDJPY, GBPJPY and CHFJPY. Close to be testing key supports
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: JPY pairs are being sold off heavily this morning.
Support levels highlighted in latest Technical Update on JPY pairs have been taken out and key support levels are to be tested.
However, short-term bounce should be expected but the sell-off has changed the overall scenario on JPY pairs from being bullish to bearish
USDJPY took out the 0.382 retracement and has sold off from the start of the Asian session fast approaching support at around 144.75.
The support at around 144.75 is not the strongest support but a bounce from that levels is likely.
RSI is in negative sentiment pointing to lower USDJPY levels and a move over the next few days to the 0.618 retracement at 142.84 could be seen.
The 200 DMA will add support to that level.
For USDJPY to demolish this bearish picture a close above 147.50
EURJPY went straight through support at around 157.70 this morning and is likely to drop to strong support at around 155.50 where a bounce could be seen. However a dip down to the 200 DMA and strong support at round 153 should not be ruled out.
A close above 159 will demolish this bearish picture. A bearish picture supported by negative sentiment on RSI
AUDJPY went straight through strong support at around 96.10 this morning and is at the time of writing below the 100 DMA testing the Cloud area. Minor support at around 94.77 where AUDJPY experience a bounce from.
At the time of writing daily RSI is below 40 threshold i.e., in negative sentiment. If closing below today the Indicator will point to lower AUDJPY. A move to support at around 93.55 would be in the cards
GBPJPY is unfolding a very short term Double Top pattern scenario with potential down to around 180. The 1.618 projection at 181.87 is almost reached.
However, with the two top not being at almost same peak price the performance will be affected. However, a move to strong support at around 181 level seems likely. If GBPJPY is reaching that support at bounce should not come as a surprise
At the time of writing daily RSI is below 40 threshold i.e., in negative sentiment. If closing below today the Indicator will point to lower GBPJPY
To demolish this bearish picture a close back above 185 CHFJPY has broken is short term rising trendline and is fast approaching support at around 165.10
If bouncing from the 165.10 support level RSI might not close below 40 thus not being in negative sentiment.
A close below 165 and an RSI close below 40 could over the next few days push CHFJPY lower to strong support at around 61.80.
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