Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - USDJPY and EURJPY pushing higher. AUDJPY and GBPJPY caught range bound?
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
- USDJPY continues its bullish trend following a breakout last week, now targeting 155-156 levels. Positive RSI sentiment supports the trend
- EURJPY rebound from supports. Could be caught range bound 165.18-162.30. Technical indicator is supporting higher levels however
- AUDJPY bounced from Fibonacci retracement and seems likely to resume uptrend. Potential to 161.60
- GBPJPY once again bounced from support at 190. Likely to struggle for bullish momentum and could be caught range bound next few days possible weeks
USDJPY has maintained its strong upward momentum after breaking out of its recent trading range last week.
The pair is now trading above the 1.618 Fibonacci projection of the February-March correction, pointing to further potential gains.
The immediate target lies at the 2.00 projection at 155.30, as indicated by two vertical blue arrows. Additionally, an extension towards 156.36 remains a viable possibility, given the current bullish dynamics.
The RSI positive sentiment and no signs of divergence i.e., no indication of trend exhaustion is supporting the bullish outlook. This alignment between the price movement and RSI suggests that the upward trend in USDJPY is robust and could continue without immediate reversal signals.
EURJPY has bounced from the lower rising trendline and support around 162.30-162.60.
Currently testing the 0.618 retracement at 164.07 EURJPY seems likely to move higher in coming days and week.
A daily close above 165.18 could trigger a rally towards the 166.30 to 167 range
A daily close below 162.30 could initiate a decline down to around 160.38
RSI divergence suggests that while the current trend is up, EURJPY might struggle to reach new highs, indicating potential exhaustion in buying momentum.
However, if RSI is closing back above 60 threshold and above its upper falling trendline it could be a sign of renewed buying that could push the pair higher
AUDJPY has bounced from the 0.786 retracement at 98.74 and seems likely to resume its uptrend.
The RSI is showing positive sentiment with no divergence, supporting a continued bullish move that could take the pair to the 1.382 projection at 101.60.
However, a close below 98.74 will reverse the bullish trend, and a bearish move to strong support at around 98.20 is likely.
The RSI is showing positive sentiment with no divergence, supporting a continued bullish move that could take the pair to the 1.382 projection at 101.60.
However, a close below 98.74 will reverse the bullish trend, and a bearish move to strong support at around 98.20 is likely.
GBPJPY once again bounced from the 0.618 retracement at 190.08.
However, GBPJPY could be caught range-bound between 190.00-193.50 for the next few days.
A breakout is needed for direction. A bullish breakout is likely supported by RSI is showing positive sentiment with no divergence leading to a move to the 1.618 projection at 195.90, around the 2015 peak.
Conversely, a bearish breakout is likely to push GBP/JPY down to strong support at around 187.86.
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