Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Trade trumps durable goods orders data
Michael O’Neill
FX Trader, Loonieviews.net
The US dollar is bid. It stayed that way despite a mixed US durable goods orders report, a rise in US wholesale inventories for May and a big drop in MBA mortgage applications data. That’s because traders have trade on their minds. The headline durable goods number of -0.6% was better than the -1.0% that was forecast.
The White House appears to have backtracked on a plan to bar Chinese companies from investing in US technology firms, first reported on Sunday. They are now planning to use changes in the Committee of Foreign Investments in the United States to review investment decisions.
Wall Street liked the change in tone. The Dow Jones Industrial average opened above yesterday’s closing rate of 24,252.80 and climbed to 24,380.54 in early trading. The S&P 500 traded as high as 2732.91 after closing at 2717.07. Prices are still well below the month’s peak levels.
WTI oil prices jumped to $71.85/barrel after opening this morning at $71.15/barrel. Traders are expecting that today’s Energy Information Administration weekly crude oil stocks change data will report a similar drawdown as the American Petroleum Institute’s report showed yesterday afternoon, (-9.228 million barrels).
USDCAD retreated from its intraday peak of 1.3325 and is hovering around support in the 1.3280-90 area. Traders are patiently waiting to hear from Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz, who is holding a press conference after a speech in Victoria B.C. It is slated for 2000-2030 GMT.
EURUSD dipped to 1.1552 after opening in New York at 1.1648. The modest improvement in the headline durable goods number contributed to the slide. This morning’s break below the intraday uptrend at 1.1640 argues for a steeper drop to 1.1510 if 1.1580 gives way.
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