Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update: US Treasuries breaking strong support levels. Shoulder Head Shoulder patterns unfolding
Interest Rates 4 minutes to read
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: US Treasuries have broken important support levels across the board. Longer term Shoulder-Head-Shoulder top and reversal patterns confirmed indicating much lower levels
US 10 years T-Note has broken strong support at 127 29/32 – with ease. On the weekly the time period the future is well below 200 SMA , RSI has broken the rising trend line. Currently there is divergence as the RSI was lower in March 2021 indicating divergence but further selling can take that level out.
Some support at around 126 22/32 .
The 200 SMA and the long term rising trend line on the monthly time period will offer some support but it is a bit far away coming up around 125. RSI on Monthly chart is below 40 threshold indicating bearish sentiment.
US T-Bond
After breaking bearish out of the symmetrical triangle the US T-Bond is now testing support at around USD153. If the bond closes the week below there is no strong support before 144.
144 is also around the 138.2% projection of the Shoulder-Head-shoulder pattern currently unfolding.
US Ultra T-Bond
The US Ultra T-Bond has broken below support at 187 15/32. Next strong support is at around 180 15/32 which is also the Neckline int eh Shoulder-Head-Shoulder like pattern. The Ultra T-bond ahs broken the longer term rising trend line indicating a test of the 180 15/32 support is likely
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