Global Market Quick Take: Asia – April 30, 2024

Equities: US equities closed higher as tech stocks were buoyed by a rally in Tesla shares that jumped 15% on CEO Musk’s quick trip to China and getting approval for its automated driving system. Apple also rallied on a bullish analyst call. Meanwhile, risk sentiment was supported by peace talks between Israel and Hamas, but focus shifts to FOMC meeting and whether Chair Powell will make a hawkish pivot that could mean risk aversion comes in play. Earnings calendar is still heavy, with Amazon, AMD, Coca-Cola and others on tap today. Our Weekly Earnings preview discusses expectations around some of these key stocks.

Japan stocks opened over 1% higher after the holiday, amid volatility in the yen. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index extended its rally on improving sentiment on tech and property sectors. China’s largest EV maker BYD missed Q1 revenue expectations on price cuts, and stock is nearly unchanged YTD after recovering from a sharp slump in January.

FX: A volatile day in FX markets with attention on JPY. USDJPY saw a quick surge to 160 earlier in thin liquidity with Japan markets on holiday. However, in what seemed like an official intervention, USDJPY dropped all the way to 155. Authorities have stayed away from confirming whether it was an intervention, but the fact that the move came after pair touched the key 160 handle, which we had highlighted as the threshold for intervention earlier, and the extent of the move suggests that authorities had a hand. USDJPY has partially faded the move, and it trades back above 156 now, but risk of another round of intervention remains if MOF/BOJ want to push out speculators further while structural weakness for the yen remains. Back in 2022 as well, Japanese authorities intervened on two consecutive days.

Focus is also shifting to the FOMC meeting and the high bar for Chair Powell to surprise hawkish. AUDUSD was rejected at 0.6585 and a dovish Fed could bring another attempt. NZDUSD ran into fibo retracement at 0.5974. EURUSD was mostly sideways despite higher inflation prints in Germany and Spain and focus turns to EZ GDP and inflation due today. Momentum in GBPUSD continues, as it rose to 1.2560+ amid sustained equity momentum. To read more on our weekly FX views, go to this Weekly FX Chartbook.

Commodities: Crude oil prices retreated amid signs of progress towards a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. This may erase some geopolitical premium, but focus still also on attacks on energy infrastructure in Russia/Ukraine. Focus may shift to macro dynamics in the next few days with FOMC meeting due, and demand outlook will be key. Meanwhile, copper prices continued their ascent to reach fresh highs with Codelco, Chile’s state-owned miner, reporting a decline in quarterly output at its aging mines. Gold is sideways and focus is on whether Chair Powell makes a hawkish pivot.

Fixed income: Treasuries ended the day in gains but the latest financing estimates from the Treasury came in above analyst expectations ahead of the QRA on Wednesday. The US Treasury expects to borrow USD 847bln in Jul-Sep, assumes end-Sep cash balance of USD 850bln. Expects to borrow USD 243bln in Apr-Jun (+41bln vs estimate in Jan), assumes end-Jun cash balance at USD 750bln. QRA and FOMC are the next big focus, read this bond market week ahead to know more.

Macro:

• FOMC preview: The FOMC announcement is due May 1 at 18:00 GMT (May 2, 2:00 SGT) and post-meeting press conference at 18:30 GMT (May 2, 2:30 SGT). While no rate change is expected and there will be no dot plot released at this meeting, the press conference will still be a key event that will impact markets. The recent hot inflation prints with the US economy still consistently growing just below trend growth could force Powell to make a hawkish pivot. However, with the market momentum leaning in that direction, the real surprise lies in a dovish interpretation. If Powell reiterates the Fed’s forecast for three rate cuts, that will likely cause a significant risk-on sentiment across all asset classes (Tech stocks likely to gain broad support for commodities and weaker USD). Some Fed members (Williams, Goolsbee) have, however, recently hinted at inflation concerns and also brought a rate hike back on the table. If that message is reiterated by Powell, we could get further hawkish reactions from the market (tech stocks likely to sell off, 2-year yields higher, moderately stronger USD). To know more, listen to the macro episode of the Saxo Market Call.
• Germany’s inflation for April ticked up slightly for the first time since December, coming in at 2.4% YoY against expectations that it will remain unchanged at 2.3%, mostly on energy prices. Spain inflation also saw a similar dynamic, coming in higher at 3.4% YoY from 3.3% in March. Euro-area inflation is due today. Meanwhile, ECB member Knot spoke with Japan’s Nikkei and sounded increasingly confident on disinflation, saying that June rate cut remains realistic if price and wage data continue to come in line with projections. But he stayed away from pre-committing to the rate path beyond June.

Macro events:

• Tuesday: Japanese Retail Sales/Industrial Output (Mar), Chinese NBS PMIs (Apr), Chinese Caixin Manufacturing Final PMI (Apr), French Flash CPI (Apr), German Flash GDP (Q1), EZ Flash CPI (Apr)/Flash GDP (Q1), US Employment Wages (Q1), US Chicago PMI (Apr), New Zealand Jobs (Q1).
• Wednesday: FOMC Announcement, US ADP National Employment (Apr), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr), US JOLTS Job Openings (Mar).

Earnings:

• Tuesday: Stryker, Amazon, AMD, Starbucks, Mondelez, Eli Lilly, Coca-Cola, McDonald’s HSBC, Eaton, Cameco, Mercedes-Benz Group, Volkswagen, Adidas, Banco Santander, PayPal, Super Micro Computer, 3M
• Wednesday: Qualcomm, Mastercard, Pfizer, ADP, Barrick Gold, Franco-Nevada, GSK, Estee Lauder, DoorDash, AIG, Kraft Heinz

News:

• Samsung first-quarter profit up 10-fold on memory chip recovery (Reuters)
• US Treasury to borrow $243 billion in Q2, higher than January forecast (Reuters)
• Boeing Gets a Welcome Respite With $10 Billion Bond Offering (Bloomberg)
• MicroStrategy Posts Loss on Impairment Charge, Revenue Declines (Bloomberg)
• China's BYD shows effects of price war with weaker first-quarter earnings (Reuters)

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

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