Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Key Stories from the past week: Weak Sentiment Hits Markets
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Tariff woes and increased uncertainty on many fronts contributed to a broader risk-off sentiment & a general increase in volatility, with VIX at highest since December. Major equity benchmarks declined, cryptocurrencies tumbled across the board & investors looked towards the US dollar and other haven-assets to find shelter under the glooming geopolitical & trade-war prone conditions which have tensed up markets. Despite surpassing most estimates, Nvidia’s earnings did little to ease the mounting pressure on broader AI-market earnings, which had tech leading losses in the selloff. Read more in this week's key stories below:
Tesla-tumble continues
Tesla stock plunged 16% this week and is down 40% from its December high. The company faces mounting challenges with declining sales, growing competition and general brand perception issues due to Elon Musk active role in the Trump administration. What does it take for a turnaround in the stock price – read our perspective here.
Tesla hits a major speed bump – is this a temporary detour?
Nvidia beats estimates
Nvidia exceeded earnings expectations with record-breaking revenue and strong guidance, but the stock reaction was muted. Nvidia remains a strong long-term investment in AI, but future growth will be more measured as valuations catch up to fundamentals.
Nvidia earnings beat estimates—so why is Wall Street hesitant | Saxo
Bitcoin below $80,000
Bitcoin & other cryptocurrencies tumbled throughout the week, erasing much of the gains made after President Trumps election win. The recent market wide risk-off sentiment & lack of bullish signals contributed to a sharp selloff on Friday (Feb 28th) which saw Bitcoin slide below $80,000.
Why the Crypto Selloff Is So Brutal
The looming date next week is March 4th which is the target date for Trumps tariffs. Markets will be looking for effective confirmation, possible delays, and retaliatory measures. But before then we have Eurozone inflation numbers on Monday the 3rd. Ongoing disinflation is expected followed by an ECB rate cut on Thursday. The week will be rounded off on Friday with US Non-farm Payroll data where markets will see if Trumps federal freeze on hiring is moving the needle.
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