Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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December Market Performance: Strong finish to 2023
Market Rewind
Søren Otto Simonsen
Senior Investment Editor
Summary: As we conclude 2023, markets finish strong especially within stocks and bonds. Oil, broad based commodities and the US dollar pull down the overall celebratory vibe.
Global equities increased with almost five percent in December. While we look forward to a year of uncertainty, the hopes of a soft landing and easing financial conditions led markets to stay positive in the festive month.
The expectation of easing financial conditions also adds to the performance across the globe. All regions climb between 3.6 and 4.4 percent with US and Asia being the high risers and Europe being in the bottom.
In terms of sectors, Industrials and Materials are the best performing, but all sectors apart from Energy post strong results increasing between 2.4 and 7.5 percent. The broad-based positive performance is indicative of the positive sentiment in the market during December.
That sentiment also flowed into bonds. Both the overall global bond performance as well as sovereign bonds and corporate bonds respectively posted green results. Sovereigns are the worst performing relatively returning 2.94% with corporates returning 3.81%.
Check out the rest of this month’s performance figures here:
Sources: Bloomberg and Saxo
*Please note that the sector graph omits the Real Estate sector this time around. This is because Bloomberg hasn’t posted prices for MSCI World Real Estate (MXWO0RE), which has been used as the proxy for that sector, since October 31st.
Global equities are measured using the MSCI World Index. Equity regions are measured using the S&P 500 (US) and the MSCI indices Europe, AC Asia Pacific, and EM respectively. Equity sectors are measured using the MSCI World/Sector] indices, e.g., MSCI World/Energy. Bonds are measured using the USD hedged Bloomberg Aggregate Total Return indices for total, sovereign, and corporate respectively. Global Commodities are measured using the Bloomberg Commodity Index. Oil is measured using the next consecutive month’s WTI Crude oil futures contract (Generic 1st CL Future). Gold is measured using the gold spot dollar price per ounce. The US Dollar currency spot is measured using the Dollar Index Spot, measuring it against a weighted basket of the following currencies: EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK, and CHF. Unless otherwise specified, figures are in local currencies.
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