Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Tariff war impacts prices, sentiment
Michael McKenna
Head of Editorial Content, Saxo Bank
Last week's central bank-driven volatility has been followed by an increasingly intense wave of tariff threats as China looks to hit US 'red states' (Republican voters) with soybeans, corn, oil, gasoline, coal, and liquid natural gas all potential targets.
"The trade war theme is risk-negative and USD-positive," says Saxo Bank Head of Forex Strategy John Hardy, who adds that the Japanese yen is not seeing its customary risk-off bid, most likely due to the country's enormous current account surplus.
"Emerging markets in Asia have been hardest hit with economies tied to Chinese imports [getting the worst of it]," says Hardy. According to Saxo Bank Head of Equity Strategy Peter Garnry, EM equities closed Friday just above their May lows and could head further still on a break of this support level.
"In general we see stocks off to a weak start this week on the new tariffs," says Garnry, adding that he is keeping one eye on the long-rumoured tariffs by the US against the European auto industry.
Saxo Bank Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen reports that commodity prices are lower on the dollar strength and trade concerns, with silver putting in a particularly noteworthy performance last week.
"Silver had a crazy week with an eight-fold increase in bullish fund bets Tuesday giving way to the largest sell-off in over 18 months Friday. We also saw gold break below key support at $1,286/oz while oil traded lower in response to the aforementioned themes as well as the upcoming Opec meeting in Vienna.
The ambient volatility is also impacting bond markets, which many investors are watching closely for signs of an impending downturn across asset classes. According to Saxo fixed income specialist Althea Spinozzi, the real problem can be seen in the US yield curve, which is at its flattest in 100 years.
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro: Sandcastle economics
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p... -
Quarterly Outlook
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...
Disclaimer