Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Saxo Group
Summary: Tesla was the most most popular stock in November, with Rivian already climbing into the the top five after going public. To help you make sense of what this all means for markets, we have compiled a list of this month's ten most popular stocks by our Australian clients.
With over 3,000 EFTs and 19,000 stocks, Saxo Markets has continued to be the place to go for Australian traders of all experiences and portfolios. This has proven to be especially true throughout November 2021, during which we saw distinct opportunities arise in the big banking, electric vehicles, and mining sectors, particularly when it comes to big-name companies. We’ve ranked the stocks that saw the most Australian clients trading them in November to find the top ten stocks to look out for that were particularly appealing last month.
Tesla Inc. might just be the hottest company in the world right now. CEO Elon Musk has become a billionaire celebrity, swaying markets with just a single tweet. The electric vehicle company itself continues to make strides in a world that will hopefully become dependent on clean energy vehicles in the coming years. Throughout November, Tesla’s share price remained above 1,000 USD, peaking on 5 November at 1,222.09 USD.
Another colossal company based in the US, Apple Inc. and its consumer electronics and software continue to hold up. Toeing the line between accessible and luxury branding, Apple has continued to climb since its initial decline at the outbreak of the pandemic. November continued to see the price climb, seeing hedge funds pile in on its retail momentum despite the Omicron variant causing the US stock market to sink. The “meme stock” craze is also being attributed to Apple’s 2021 climb.
A mining company specialising in iron ore, Fortescue Metals Group Ltd had been on a steady decline since August 2021 despite being such a massive Australian company. So, as soon as it stopped the rot, share-wise, Aussie traders piled in to ride the surge. Iron prices found their floor after China announced more favourable policies, and so, Fortescue’s share price was allowed to climb once more – but over 22 per cent in November, in fact.
After seeing Tesla rise to prominence, of course, traders are excited to back the next reportedly big electric vehicles start-up, with Rivian Automotive Inc seemingly being that meteor to grab onto. Rivian has achieved a market value of 153 billion USD without any revenue booked and is estimated to have revenue worth $9.4 bn. However, based on Rivian reaching Tesla’s operating margin of 9.6% and a 25% cash tax rate, this would equate to a net operating income of $677mn after taxes.
While there is notable market interest, the reality is that Rivian may face some challenges in meeting the expectations of becoming the next Tesla. Head of Equity Strategy at Saxo Bank, Peter Garnry commented, “Assuming the cost of capital of 10% (primarily equity financed with a high beta and early-start risk premium) and we play with the thought that this revenue/orders were a perpetuity and it could pass on inflation of 3% in the future, then this cash flow is worth $10bn today, a far cry from the current $153bn valuation.”
The juggernaut of US entertainment, and increasingly global entertainment, The Walt Disney Company share price has been riding high throughout 2021, but in mid-November, it took a significant dip. With costs rising and streaming subscriptions slowing, Disney fell from 174.45 USD on 10 November to 142.15 USD on the opening day of December. The ethos now seems to be to grab Disney while it’s cheap and wait for the all but inevitable rise.
CommBank is Australia’s biggest bank that has businesses in the US, UK, New Zealand, and in Asia. Naturally, one of the biggest names in Australia, a November slide in share price encouraged Aussie traders to pile on. Despite the Commonwealth Bank reported a jump in profits, the competitiveness of the mortgage market has resulted in flat revenues despite the firing housing market. However, the share price fall has been labelled an “over-reaction.”
The mining, metals, and petroleum company giant fell about 34% from July to November 2021, hitting a 12-month low in 2 November (a low of 35.56). Since then, the biggest iron ore miner in the world, BHP, has seen its shares move higher, rising by double digits to where we at today. Is this a sleeping beauty giant? That’s what traders and investors are thinking, which is why this has been one of the most bought stocks.
Saxo Markets’ Australian Market Strategist, Jessica Amir commented, "We are pleasingly seeing signs that the Chinese property sector is improving; Chinese iron ore imports are picking up (month on month) and Australian iron ore shipments to China are increasing week on week. These have supported the iron ore price rallying (up 17% from its low), which has taken the iron ore price above US$108.80 (its highest level, in 7 weeks), a positive sign that should boost earnings for iron ore miners, like BHP. Also, BHP is now the biggest company on the ASX by market cap size, and it’s going to get a whole lot bigger as BHP’s board approved the proposal to rid its dual-listing structure in the new year."
With some 14 million customers and 40,000 employees, Westpac is Australia’s fourth biggest bank. For Aussie traders, the banking corporation has underperformed the other big banks this year, with its share price, only growing 13% (CBA grew 23%, NAB up 31%, ANZ up 27). However, Jessica Amir commented that this could all change ‘Pivoting to market expectations, consensus suggest Westpac will see the best share price growth over the next 12 months compared to the other big 3 banks. This is supported by hopes that the company may buy back more stock with its $9.3 billion surplus capital, (however given it’s going to write down $590 million, its surplus could decline). While its loan growth remains weak despite a rising property market, Westpac, like most banks could also benefit from rising long-term and official interest rates.’
PayPal Holdings Inc. has become the staple of online payments, offering the wall of security that people increasingly seek between their bank or card and online vendors. The eWallet isn’t so big that its share price has been able to evade “fintech carnage,” though, as PayPal’s price continued to tumble through November. Of course, many foresee PayPal making a resurgence sooner rather than later, with analysts billing it as an attractive option.
The parent company of Kmart and Sears was hit by the outbreak of the pandemic, but as the world has gradually returned to some semblance of normalcy, so too has its share price gradually moved upwards. Seritage Growth Properties had a rather steady November, and while the company’s been losing money for years – even prior to the pandemic – things look to be on the rise. Evidently, it is beginning to execute its strategy in a much more aggressive manner under a new CEO, CFO, and president.
Disclaimer: All trading carries risk. Any past performance stated is not an indication of future performance.