Products
Platforms
Accounts
Inspiration
About
Support
For institutions
Log in Open account
International
CFDs and forex (FX) are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. 
Show more
CFDs and forex (FX) are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs, FX, or any of our other products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Show less
background image

Chart of the Week: US OECD Composite Leading Indicator

Macro 3 minutes to read
Picture of Christopher Dembik
Christopher Dembik

Head of Macroeconomic Research

Summary:  Fresh data and a clear outlook from the Paris-based OECD foresees green shoots of recovery in China, paltry growth in the Eurozone and the UK, and the US dangerously hovering close to the recession zone.

Click here to download this week’s full edition of Macro Chartmania.

At Saxo, we use the OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLI) to assess where the economy is heading. It is designed to anticipate turning points in the economy six to nine months ahead.

Last week, the OECD updated its data for March and the message sent by CLI is bright and clear: China stands alone in that it seems it will start to rebound (mostly due to the massive credit stimulus in T1 2019 that was about 9% of GDP), but all the other major economies are facing economic slowdowns in coming quarters and below-trend growth.

In the euro area, CLI is back to where it was in 2013 and in the United Kingdom to 2012 levels. However, in our view, the most worrying trend is in the United States. Looking at the CLI index monthly update, it has dropped 0.2 point to 98.8 in March, which is the lowest point since Autumn 2009. The year-on-year rate is also negative. In March 2018, it stood at 0.68% and it is now at minus 1.65% – quite a swing over 12 months!

The US CLI is currently at levels that are usually consistent with the risk of recession (with few exceptions, in 1967, in 1995 and in 2003). It reinforces our call that the current business cycle is very fragile at the global level and that there is very little margin for policy error in 2019. All will depend on China’s ability to strengthen its economy in coming months.
Composite Leading Indicator

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
    Read full article
  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Read full article
  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

    Read full article
  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Read full article
  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    Read full article
  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Read full article
  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Read full article
  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Read full article
  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    Read full article
  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    Read full article

Content disclaimer

None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Bank A/S and its entities within the Saxo Bank Group provide execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice nor a recommendation.

Saxo’s content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.

Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. Saxo does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

Please refer to our full disclaimer and notification on non-independent investment research for more details.
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International
Products & pricing
Platforms
Accounts & service
General
Other
Legal

All trading and investing comes with risk, including but not limited to the potential to lose your entire invested amount.

Information on our international website (as selected from the globe drop-down) can be accessed worldwide and relates to Saxo Bank A/S as the parent company of the Saxo Bank Group. Any mention of the Saxo Bank Group refers to the overall organisation, including subsidiaries and branches under Saxo Bank A/S. Client agreements are made with the relevant Saxo entity based on your country of residence and are governed by the applicable laws of that entity's jurisdiction.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.