Log in Open account
International
CFDs and forex (FX) are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. 
Show more
CFDs and forex (FX) are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs, FX, or any of our other products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Show less
Fixed Income Markets: The Week Ahead

Fixed Income Markets: The Week Ahead

Bonds
Picture of Althea Spinozzi
Althea Spinozzi

Head of Fixed Income Strategy

Summary:  Heavy US Treasury notes issuance this week will provide an insight to inflation expectations.

This week’s focus is going to be in the primary US Treasury market:

  • Tuesday 8th of September: US to sell $50bn 3-year notes
  • Wednesday 9th of September: US to sell $35bn 10-year notes
  • Thursday 10th of September: US to sell $23bn 30-year notes

We expect the 3-year notes to quote in line with current market valuations. However, we believe that the 10 and 30-year note issuances are crucial to understanding investors' expectations regarding CPI numbers, which are going to be released on Friday. If investors expect higher inflation, they will demand higher yields. Therefore, we could potentially see 5s30s steepening, while the front end of the curve could flatten slightly as risk-averse investors position themselves into shorter maturities.

Another area to look at is the investment-grade (IG) bond space. This week, dealers are looking to issue up to $50bn IG bonds. This year has seen the largest issuance in investment-grade bonds ever, with lower-rated IG corporates issuing the largest amount. We believe that this is a major credit negative signal as the system gets more and more leveraged and ratings are doomed to deteriorate. We will look to this point into detail in an article published this week.

On Thursday we have the ECB meeting where the market is expecting Lagarde to talk the euro down. The ECB might even decide to cut the main policy rate by 10bps to reinforce this point. If that were to happen, we expect the bund to reprice higher. Still, we don't believe it will be a driver for higher prices in the European corporate bond space as yields are already depressed.

Economic Calendar:

Monday 7th

  • Germany: industrial production
  • China: trade, foreign reserves

Tuesday 8th

  • Euro-area: GDP, employment

Wednesday 9th

  • Bank of Canada: overnight rate target
  • France: industrial confidence
  • China: PPI, CPI

Thursday 10th

  • ECB rate decision
  • US: initial jobless claims, PPI, wholesale inventories
  • France: industrial production
  • Italy: industrial production

Friday 11th

  • US: consumer prices, Treasury budget statement
  • EU finance ministers meet for a 2-day meeting
  • UK: GDP, BOE inflations expectation survey
  • Spain: industrial output

Sovereign rating updates

  • S&P: Austria, Luxembourg, Malta, Norway, Portugal, Ghana, Jordan, Kenya, Ukraine
  • Moody’s: Poland, Slovakia, Botswana, Mozambique

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    Read full article
  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
    Read full article
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...
    Read full article
  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
    Read full article
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Read full article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo...
    Read full article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami...
    Read full article
  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p...
    Read full article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Quarterly Outlook

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ...
    Read full article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...
    Read full article

Disclaimer

 The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International
Products & pricing
Platforms
Accounts & service
General
Other
Legal

All trading and investing comes with risk, including but not limited to the potential to lose your entire invested amount.

Information on our international website (as selected from the globe drop-down) can be accessed worldwide and relates to Saxo Bank A/S as the parent company of the Saxo Bank Group. Any mention of the Saxo Bank Group refers to the overall organisation, including subsidiaries and branches under Saxo Bank A/S. Client agreements are made with the relevant Saxo entity based on your country of residence and are governed by the applicable laws of that entity's jurisdiction.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.