Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - US Treasury yields on the rise. Could make new highs
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Correction in US Treasury yields likely to be over. Uptrends set to resume. Uptrends that could very well take out previous peaks
2-year yields bouncing from rising trendline
10-years resuming uptrend not even touching lower rising trend line, a sign of strength
30-year bouncing from support close to confirm uptrend resuming
US 2-year Treasury yields bounced off the lower rising trendline and the 55 daily Moving Average.
RSI is still bullish suggesting higher yields. A bullish move to around the 5% level seems likely.
If yields are taking out the previous peak at 4.062 a move to 5.20 is in the cards
A close below 4.70 will demolish and reverse the bullish picture and is likely to push 2-year yields down toa round 4.50-4.40
US 10-year Treasury yields correction following the Evening Doji like top and reversal pattern (circled, and not perfect since the body of the Doji candle is inside the preceding bullish candle and the subsequent bearish candle) seems to be over.
Bouncing from the 0.5 retracement at 4.04 yields are resuming uptrend.
No divergence on RSI indicating likely higher yields. An RSI close above 60 will further underline that picture.
If yields are taking out 4.28 resistance new highs are in the cards. A move to the 1.382 projection at 4.48 and testing of the upper rising trendline could be seen.
US 30-year Treasury yields bounced from support area 4.17-4.14 and seems to be resuming uptrend.
A close above 4.33 and an RSI close above 60 will confirm that scenario.
US 30-year yields could be set for higher highs.
A break above 4.48 a move to the 1.382 projection at 4.58 is likely.
Resistance at 4.35-4.36 is key.
For this potential bullish scenario to be demolished a close below 4.17
A close above 4.33 and an RSI close above 60 will confirm that scenario.
US 30-year yields could be set for higher highs.
A break above 4.48 a move to the 1.382 projection at 4.58 is likely.
Resistance at 4.35-4.36 is key.
For this potential bullish scenario to be demolished a close below 4.17
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