CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs, FX or any of our other products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Cookie policy
Our websites use cookies to offer you a better browsing experience by enabling, optimising, and analysing site operations, as well as to provide personalised ad content and allow you to connect to social media. By choosing “Accept all” you consent to the use of cookies and the related processing of personal data. Select “Manage consent” to manage your consent preferences. You can change your preferences or retract your consent at any time via the cookie policy page. Please view our cookie policy and our privacy policy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs, FX or any of our other products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Summary: Leveraged funds cut bullish commodities bets by just 4% in the week to November 6. Continued heavy selling of crude oil and products were somewhat offset by a pickup in demand for metals and grains.
Saxo Bank publishes two weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial.
To download your copy of the Commitment of Traders: Commodities report for the week ending November 6, click here. First, the reasons why we focus primarily on the behaviour of leveraged funds:
• They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged. • This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments. • It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming.
In my latest webinar I spent the first part talking about the COT report and how to read the table below.
The crude oil slump, which extended into a fifth week continued to attract long liquidation and fresh short-selling from hedge funds. Nine weeks of continued selling has resulted in the WTI net-long reaching a 14-month and Brent at 16-month low. Soaring crude oil production and reduced worries about US sanctions' impact on Iran have raised the pressure on Opec and Russia to stop the rout and that seems to be what they will accomplish at this weekend’s Joint Opec/non-Opec Ministerial Monitoring Committee (or in short, Opec+ meeting) in Abu Dhabi.
Saudi Arabia, under pressure from President Tump, raised production by 700,000 barrels/day between June and October said after the meeting that they would now reduce crude sales in December by 500,000 barrels/day. In response to the 20% drop since early October the Opec+ warned in a statement that a new strategy was needed and this has raised speculation about coordinated cuts in 2019.
Hedge funds reduced bearish gold bets by 18% before renewed price weakness ahead of the weekend. The drop on Friday was driven by continued dollar strength and stronger than expected PPI that helped support the Federal Open Market Committee’s plan to keep raising rates. Silver, which almost touched the top and bottom of its three-month range last week, was also bought ahead of the slump.
The biggest jump in platinum demand since January, which followed nine weeks of buying, has taken the net from a record short to a 10k lots long. HG Copper traders remained undecided with the net-short once again moving towards neutral as growth worries offsets signs of a tight market.
Grain traders cut a net-short in soybeans by 37% while adding further length to corn ahead of last Thursday’s World Agriculture Supply Demand (WASDE) report from the US Department of Agriculture.
In softs, coffee short-covering continued for a seventh consecutive week despite renewed price weakness following the 31% September to October surge. Sugar ran into profit taking as the price retraced almost of half of the recent 31% rally.
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Your browser cannot display this website correctly.
Our website is optimised to be browsed by a system running iOS 9.X and on desktop IE 10 or newer. If you are using an older system or browser, the website may look strange. To improve your experience on our site, please update your browser or system.