Outrageous Predictions
Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026
Saxo Group
Read Saxo's Outrageous Predictions for 2026, our latest batch of low probability, but high impact ev...
You can access both of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Gold looks to the UK and Italy for support
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Summary: Gold took a beating last week at the hands of US rate hike expectations and unexpectedly strong data. Now, renewed dollar strength against EUR and GBP is keeping the pressure up on the yellow metal.
Gold has dropped to its lowest in a month (-0.3%) and is now looking for support this Monday after breaking below $1,211/oz on Friday. Last week it was the stronger-than-expected US PPI coming just after the Federal Open Market Committee confirmed that further gradual rate hikes are coming that helped send the yellow metal lower. The weakness today has been driven by continued dollar strength, especially against the euro (+0.6%) as the European Commission is ready to escalate its budget battle with Italy. The dollar has also gained versus sterling (+0.8%) as pressure built on the British Prime Minister to ditch her Brexit plan or face defeat in Parliament.
Following on from last Friday’s PPI, the market will be looking ahead to the release of October US CPI on Wednesday. The headline figure is expected to show a year-on-year rise of 2.5%, up from 2.2% in September. The US bond market has not yet bought into a rising inflation outlook with the 10-year breakeven yield having stayed close to 2.1% all year. As a result of this the equivalent 10-year real yield, currently at 1.13% and up from 0.4% at the beginning of the year, has been rising almost in line with the rise in nominal yield. Rising real yields pose a challenge to gold given the opportunity cost of holding an asset that does not pay a coupon or a dividend.
Following on from last Friday’s PPI, the market will be looking ahead to the release of October US CPI on Wednesday. The headline figure is expected to show a year-on-year rise of 2.5%, up from 2.2% in September. The US bond market has not yet bought into a rising inflation outlook with the 10-year breakeven yield having stayed close to 2.1% all year. As a result of this the equivalent 10-year real yield, currently at 1.13% and up from 0.4% at the beginning of the year, has been rising almost in line with the rise in nominal yield. Rising real yields pose a challenge to gold given the opportunity cost of holding an asset that does not pay a coupon or a dividend.
Hedge funds reduced bearish gold bets by 18% during the week to November 6 before the mentioned price weakness ahead of the weekend. ETF investors meanwhile increased total holdings again, albeit at a much reduced rate compared with the previous four weeks.
The political uncertainty, which is the key driver behind today’s dollar strength – note it is trading unchanged against the Japanese yen – has helped cushion gold’s drop with focus now being the area of support between $1,202/oz (50% Fibo) and $1,198/oz (trendline from the August low).
However, keep an eye on silver which after testing resistance last week once again collapsed. It is currently challenging support at $14/oz, and with silver already trading historically cheaply relative to gold, a break below is likely to be felt in gold as well.
Latest Market Insights
Outrageous Predictions 2026
-
-
Outrageous Predictions
A Fortune 500 company names an AI model as CEO
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Can AI be trusted to take over in the boardroom? With the right algorithms and balanced human oversi... -
Outrageous Predictions
Despite concerns, U.S. 2026 mid-term elections proceed smoothly
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
In spite of outstanding threats to the American democratic process, the US midterms come and go cord... -
Outrageous Predictions
Dollar dominance challenged by Beijing’s golden yuan
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Beijing does an end-run around the US dollar, setting up a framework for settling trade in a neutral... -
Outrageous Predictions
Obesity drugs for everyone – even for pets
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
The availability of GLP-1 drugs in pill form makes them ubiquitous, shrinking waistlines, even for p... -
Outrageous Predictions
Dumb AI triggers trillion-dollar clean-up
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Agentic AI systems are deployed across all sectors, and after a solid start, mistakes trigger a tril... -
Outrageous Predictions
Quantum leap Q-Day arrives early, crashing crypto and destabilizing world finance
Neil Wilson
Investor Content Strategist
A quantum computer cracks today’s digital security, bringing enough chaos with it that Bitcoin crash... -
Outrageous Predictions
Taylor Swift-Kelce wedding spikes global growth
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Next year’s most anticipated wedding inspires Gen Z to drop the doomscrolling and dial up the real w... -
Outrageous Predictions
SpaceX announces an IPO, supercharging extraterrestrial markets
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Financial markets go into orbit, to the moon and beyond as SpaceX expands rocket launches by orders-... -
Outrageous Predictions
China unleashes CNY 50 trillion stimulus to reflate its economy
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Having created history’s most epic debt bubble, China boldly bets that fiscal stimulus to the tune o...