Macro: Sandcastle economics
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Technical Update - Oil and Gasoline testing key supports, break could fuel heavy sell off. Natural Gas on the rise, but high volatility. Emissions bouncing off support
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Brent oil is once again testing key support at $96.75/brl. A couple of weeks ago the price spiked below and rebounded strongly, this time it looks like sellers mean business. However, a daily close below is needed for a confirmed break of the support.
RSI is below 40 but above values two weeks ago when oil price dipped below support. If RSI breaks below and closes below lows i.e. below the horizontal line on the indicator downtrend is further confirmed.
Bollinger bands are expanding i.e. in the Developing stage suggesting the (down)trend has just started
Next support is at 90.12 and at the 0.764 retracement at 85.76. To reverse this bearish picture at close above 110.67 is needed
WTI Crude oil is testing key support at $90. It seems to be trading in a falling channel and if WTI closes below 90 next support is at the 0.764 retracement at 81.31.
Bollinger bands are expanding and RSI below 40 indicating bear trend. To reverse/neutralize this bearish picture a close above 101.88 is needed.
Henry Hub gas has retraced 50% of the July rally. Yesterday’s bounce from the 55 SMA forming a bullish engulfing candle (normally you see this kind of candles at the end of a down trend but they simply just indicate buyers taking control from sellers). RSI is above 60 with no divergence indicating higher levels are likely. If Henry Hub gas drops below 7.56 the correction is likely to drop to the 0.618 retracement at 7.01.
Dutch TTF gas is in and uptrend trading in a wide rising channel. Rejected at the upper trend line last week when trying to break above upper trend line, Dutch gas could be in for another correction.
The falling values on RSI shows divergence supporting a correction picture. If the price drops below 188 Dutch gas is likely to test the lower rising trendline. A close below 152 is likely to reverse the bullish picture.
If RSI closes above its falling trendline it is an indication of Dutch gas will take out last week’s high at 228
Gasoline has taken out support, trading below 200 SMA and further sell offs likely. Currently testing support at 288.61. If a close below there is room down to around 259. However, RSI break below horizontal line is needed for further down side conformation. If that does not occur Gasoline could see a bounce
Emission broke bearish out of its symmetrical triangle to find support at 75. Bouncing strongly close to test the lower rising trend line in the triangle. However, a close above 86.57 is needed for a confirmation of the uptrend.
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