Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Technical Update - Oil on the bounce - can it reverse downtrend? Gas finding support after sell-off - where to next?
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Crude oil could be breaking falling trend testing trend lines. Key resistance levels to be observed.
Natural Gas seems to have found a floor. Key question is; will it bounce from here or is it just a pause in its selling pressure?
WTI oil is testing its upper falling trendline in a wide falling channel and the 55 SMA.
RSI is testing 60 threshold. If WTI closes above the trend line followed by a close above $90.20, and RSI closes above 60 WTI is in a confirmed uptrend. If that scenario unfolds WTI has reversed the down trend since June and a move to strong resistance at 97 would be likely.
If instead WTI drops back and RSI is being rejected at the 60 threshold September lows at 76.25 is likely to be tested and probably taken out.
Brent oil showing almost similar pattern as WTI but still has a few dollars more to move before testing its falling trend line and 55 SMA: RSI is also close to test 60 threshold and close above combined with a Brent price close above 95.80 will confirm a reversal of the down trend since June. Resistance at the 200 SMA and strong resistance at around 105.48
Dutch TTF Gas is in a short term down trend forming a falling channel pattern. Selling pressure has eased however, and Dutch Gas seems to built a base just above key support at €152. We could see Dutch Gas trading between the two falling trendlines in this channel. If Dutch Gas closes above 226 the down trend has revered and higher prices are likely.
A close below 142 could fuel a sell-off towards €100. Some support at around 134-125.
Henry Hub Gas has reached roughly half of the potential target after the Shoulder-Head-Shoulder break out. Bouncing from strong support at around $6.35. Henry Hub could be stuck in a side ways range between 6.30 and 7.15 for a while. Break out direction will be key. A break out to the down side Henry Hub could collapse down to June/July lows around 5.33. Break out to the upside Henry Hub is likely to test the Neckline resistance at around 7.55.
RSI could be key. If RSI is rejected at the falling trend line lower price levels are in the cards.
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