Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Dutch Gas turning bullish testing key resistance. Henry Hub hit by strong sell off. Oil losing upside momentum testing rising trend lines. Car drivers seem to get some relief. Carbon Emission showing upside potential
Brent oil was rejected at $125.28 twice closing yesterday below short-term lower trend line in the rising channel. RSI divergence strongly indicates a test of support at 114.84 and a drop to test the lower rising trend line (black line) is likely. 55 and 100 SMA’s will offer support .
If Brent can close above $125.28 March peak is achievable.
WTI Crude oil rejected just above $123 twice only to be send back below the short-term rising trend line and closed below support at 116.38. A bearish move to test the lower trend line is not unlikely. Support around 108-105.
To resume uptrend a close above 123.82 is needed.
Gasoline got rejected twice around $432.60. Unfolding a short double to it closed below rising trend line. Since mid-May RSI has been showing divergence which is a sign of weakening of the uptrend.
With the close below rising trend line yesterday Gasoline could fall back to around 350 possibly 325, 0.618 and 0.764 retracement levels respectively. Some support at 365
Dutch Gas broke above falling trend line Tuesday pausing at resistance at €98With the massive move Wednesday Dutch gas is at the time of writing trading above key resistance at around 127.50. A daily close above will most likely push Dutch Gas higher. 146.67 would be minimum level to reach but 166-178 is not unlikely. RSI is back in bullish territory.
Henry Hub gas Has taken out key support at 8.11 selling off to close at the 0.764 Fibonacci retracement level. RSI closed above 40 threshold but a new sell off will most likely pushing it below i.e. in to bearish sentiment. Henry Hub is not unlikely to test key support at around 4.65
Carbon Emission has broken bullish out of Triangle like pattern. A daily close above 88.65 will confirm new uptrend. With first resistance at 92.75. However, February peak around 98.50 is not unlikely. To demolish the likely bullish scenario a close below 79.10 is needed.
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Chief Investment Strategist
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Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Head of Commodity Strategy