Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - Precious metals
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
After Gold XAUUSD spot failed to take out all time high earlier this month it got sold off down to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at around $1,895 where it has bounced somewhat. Seems as if the buyers have run out of power at the 0.682 retracement at around $1,965.
Expect Gold XAUUSD to be stuck in this range for maybe a week or two. However, 16th March trough at 1.895 could come under pressure and if breaking below next support is at $1,848.
With RSI showing no divergence it indicates we should see a move higher. A move above $1,965 could lead to a renewed test of all-time highs. With resistance at $2,000 i.e. the 0.618 retracement.
Keep an eye on the RSI. Breaking above its falling trendline could be first indication of a breakout from the $1,895-1,965 range.
Almost identical picture (to Gold) Silver XAGUSD spot retraced “only” 0.5 of the February-March bull move to around $24.45. However, that retracement could be extended with the past two days move the 0.50 retracement seems to come under pressure. A downwards move to the 0.618 at around $23.90 retracement and the 200 SMA is not unlikely.
To resume uptrend XAGUSD needs to take out $25.85
If Palladium is the Canary in the Coal mine then there could be more downside for Gold and Silver. Palladium has dropped below its 0.618 Fibo retracement hovering between its 100 and 200 Daily SMA.
RSI is below 40 showing negative sentiment and Bollinger Bands are expanding which indicate further down side can be expected.
For Palladium to reverse the down trend a break above $2.639 is needed
Platinum XPTUSD spot showing almost identical scenario to Palladium. After break rising trend line selling pressure intensified. RSI below 40 and Bollinger Bands expanding, short term down trend confirmed. Some support around $950.
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